While at any given moment some birds somewhere are migrating, the spring passage of long-distance migrant land birds over the mid-Atlantic has most certainly tapered off. Most of these birds have arrived or are arriving at their breeding grounds across the US and Canada. Until next time, have a great summer!
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA
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Migration Weather Forecast
Wow... I can't believe we're already in June! It seems like just yesterday when I was cursing the cold as I walked my dog and could only pick out the singing White-throated Sparrows over the howling wind. Since then the trees have leafed out, The World Series of Birding has come and gone, and the dawn chorus in the woods behind my house, so recently composed of migrant warblers, is now almost exclusively comprised of breeders. I say 'almost' because my buddy Ben knocked on my door this morning to tell me about a 'life bird' he saw while conducting his annual breeding bird surveys. The bird he saw? A Mourning Warbler! Now, for the last three days I've been in Austin, PA, conducting a Bioblitz at the Austin Dam property, and have seen more Mourning Warblers than I had in all the years leading up to this weekend (they breed pretty heavily in that part of PA). I came back last night, ecstatic, and couldn't wait to tell Ben about the great Mourning show I saw just five hours away from central NJ... well, before I could get a word out Ben had described to me a very similar encounter, only five minutes from my doorstep. Of course I was excited for Ben, but man did that take a bit of excitement out of my story!
So, migration has clearly slowed down with most migrants already having reached their breeding grounds, or very nearly so. It is for that reason this forecast will serve as the last 'regular' update until Fall. As I have in the past, I will occasionally use this space to post interesting tidbits of information regarding migration between now and September, so please come back and visit!
Monday Night
Another front will approach the mid-Atlantic from the west on Monday, which will increase southerly flow on Monday night and trigger migration across the region.
Tuesday Night
By Tuesday night the front will extend across New Jersey, resulting in winds switching to westerly and then northwesterly by Tuesday night. This, coupled with precipitation, will minimize any migration into the region on Tuesday night.
Wednesday Night
By Wednesday the front will back up and stall over the region, begin to fall apart a bit, and allow the southerly winds to build in again. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday night which could cause some localized concentrations of migrants.
Thursday Night
On Thursday the remnant front will move east into the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to build in once again, turning winds northerly and reducing any possibility of nocturnal migration.
Birding Forecast
Tuesday Morning
It looks like Tuesday should be a nice day for birding. With a new crop of birds scheduled to arrive, and no precipitation expected until later in the day, hitting your favorite migrant trap would be a productive way to spend your morning.
Wednesday Morning
Again, precipitation is forecast for after 11am, so getting out early would be key on Wednesday. Little change is expected from Tuesday morning, so head for areas with high breeder diversity, or check out the tried and true spring migrant spots for birds leftover from yesterday.
Thursday Morning
We could see some localized concentrations on Thursday morning, as birds migrating on Wednesday night encounter thunderstorms en route. Check the radar at the top of this page during the night on Wednesday to see whether birds are flying into heavy precipitation, and whether they're continuing north or landing prematurely. If the latter is apparent, then head to for birding locations at the intersection of birds and thunderstorms, otherwise go for the tried and true spring migrant trap of your choice.
Friday Morning
Friday is looking beautiful in terms of weather. Since nothing is expected to move on Thursday night, you can base your decision on where to go on the reports from the previous day.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding, and see you in the Fall!
David
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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Migration Weather Forecast
Monday Night
Winds will start off easterly as a warm front slowly moves north into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night. A moderate level of migration is expected in the southern part of the region, just south of the warm front, while light migration is expected further north where the winds are more northeasterly.
Tuesday Night
By Tuesday the warm front will have backed up over the mid-Atlantic, increasing the chance of precipitation and turning winds ESE. Given the more southerly winds, especially at 3000 feet, the chance of migration is looking pretty good.
Wednesday Night
The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, turning winds southerly and increasing the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday night. If thunderstorms hold off until after sunset, we could see heavy migration coupled with the chance of fallout conditions wherever late-night thunderstorms are most intense.
Thursday Night
The latest front will take awhile to cross the mid-Atlantic, which means another night of southerly flow on Thursday. This time, though, it's looking like winds will be southwesterly through early Friday morning when the cold front passes to our east and the winds turn northwest. This bodes well both for heavy migration and for stalling birds over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning.
Birding Forecast
Tuesday Morning
Well, if you don't like rain, Tuesday morning is looking like your best bet for birding during the work week. Not a whole lot of new arrivals are expected on Tuesday but as is typical of the season, there are lots of birds around anyway. With west winds on tap for Tuesday, interior sites will be the best bet. Garret Mountain might be good, but locations with higher breeding bird diversity should be better. A place I've been meaning to check out is Black River WMA, in Morris County, near Chester, NJ. This place is great for breeders, it's inland, and also attracts many migrants. Bill Boyle has a section in his book A Guide to Bird Finding in New Jersey, and the section on Black River just happens to be available for free on Google Books. Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/qmnl53 Of course, if you don't have that book, and you go birding more than once a year in New Jersey, you ought to buy a copy. My copy has lost the cover and most of the binding, is stained throughout with coffee and dead mosquitoes, and covered in scribbled field notes. Along with my New Jersey road atlas, this is my most important asset when birding in the Garden State.
Wednesday Morning
Looks like rain on Wednesday, but who said birding should be a dry event? Expect a new influx of migrants to arrive on Wednesday morning, and with winds out of the southwest we should see the highest densities at inland migrant traps. Garret Mountain would be a good bet, as would any of the spring hotspots on either side of the Delaware River.
Thursday Morning
Heavy migration into and out of the mid-Atlantic is expected for Thursday morning. Keep an eye on the weather to see if heavy thunderstorms have an effect on the migrants en route, because if they do, we could experience some localized fallout conditions. Right now it's too soon to predict, so make sure to follow along on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) where I'll be posting live updates during the night.
Friday Morning
Thursday night will be the last sizable flight before the northwest winds on Friday morning shut things down for awhile. The good news? Friday morning will see plenty of new birds and the return of clear skies and nice weather. Right now the forecast is for winds to be light, which would really make finding birds that much easier. Since birds will be arriving on WSW winds, expect coastal migrant traps to be best on Friday. Sandy Hook is an obvious choice for New Jersey, and Cape May can be great as well.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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Migration Weather Forecast
Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday Nights
Right now the mid-Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure system, bounded to the south by a low over Florida and associated front creating strong ENE flow across the southeastern US. This front has effectively become a barrier to any birds in the southeast that might want to migrate north. Over the mid-Atlantic, though, the high pressure system has set up a light to moderate south/southwesterly flow, which will trigger several nights of migration from the Carolinas and Virginia all the way up into the northeastern US. Clear skies are on tap until the end of the weekend, and even then, we're not expecting much. Therefore migration will be heavy and well dispersed across the landscape.
Birding Forecast
Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday Morning
Right now the birding forecast is looking pretty predictable... of course, all of this can change in a couple of days. Winds are forecast to be light to moderate out of the south/southwest, and coupled with clear skies, we should see some widespread migration across the mid-Atlantic throughout the weekend. Because no strong crosswinds nor heavy precipitation are forecast, you can expect the best birding conditions to be found in established spring migrant traps such as Higbee's Beach, Cape May (NJ; best on WSW winds), Belleplain State Forest, Garret Mountain, Sandy Hook (best on WSW winds) and Central Park (NY).
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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Migration Weather Forecast
Sunday Night
The high pressure system that built in behind Saturday night's front will continue to blow northwest winds over the mid-Atlantic. No migration is expected.
Monday Night
High pressure will begin to weaken as the mid-Atlantic gets squeezed between a cold front to the west, and a strong area of low pressure over Florida. Some models show winds actually turning south on Monday night, while others show a persistent, but light, northwest. For now we're only expecting a light migration on variable winds.
Tuesday Night
By Tuesday the front to our west will move close enough to set up more southerly flow, and therefore trigger moderate to heavy migration.
Wednesday Night
High pressure will continue to dominate on Wednesday night, with light southwest winds triggering another night of migration.
Birding Forecast
Monday Morning
The latest reports show good movement of Catharus thrushes and Blackpoll warblers, both of which are "later" spring migrants, and a sign that we're entering the latter part of the season. With little moving on Sunday night, a good rule of thumb is to head where good birding conditions have been recently reported.
Tuesday- Thursday Morning
Conditions after Monday should be relatively consistent, with light and variable winds dominating, and no precipitation on tap for most of the region. Given how light the winds are forecast, birds will tend to be widespread across the region. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the best results this coming week.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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Migration Weather Forecast
Tuesday Night
Winds will be out of the northwest as high pressure continues over the mid-Atlantic, but still light enough to allow these migration-ready birds to head north into and out of the region.
Wednesday Night
A strong cold front is approaching from the west, and on Wednesday the winds will begin to turn southeasterly in anticipation. Expect widespread migration from Virginia north to Maine.
Thursday Night
The front arrives on Thursday, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Precipitation is forecast for early Friday morning so we could see some concentration in northern NJ and southern NY as birds hit the front. Overall expect heavy migration across the entire region on Thursday night.
Friday Night
Updated 5/15/09: The precipitation has been removed from the forecast as the front that crossed the region last night has dissipated today. Expect moderate to heavy levels of migration tonight on southeast winds and clear skies.
Birding Forecast
Wednesday Morning
Moderate migration into and out of the region will result in a 'thinning out' of the migrant density that we've been experiencing since the weekend. Still, there will be plenty of birds around and the spring migrant traps will provide the best birding conditions after a night of widespread migration.
Thursday Morning
Southeast winds and clear skies mean widespread migration across the region. Tried and true spring migrant traps will be best on Thursday with coastal locations being a good choice given the easterly component to the wind.
Friday Morning
Heavy migration on south winds coupled with a 70% chance of precipitation bodes well for birding on Friday. Expect concentrations to be highest wherever the storms build after midnight and intercept migrating birds.
Update 5/14/09:Thanks to Don Freiday for the email regarding the wind forecast for tonight. As Don noted, winds over Patterson, NJ are forecast to turn NW between 3 and 5 AM Friday morning. This switch in winds will be accompanied by some precipitation, which together will likely lead to fallout conditions. If this scenario plays out, we could see a fallout at Garret Mountain, as well as other areas located along the frontal boundary. Also, with strong west winds building in late tonight, expect coastal hotspots to be hopping tomorrow. The front will not make its way across the entire region, instead it will retreat and dissipate on Friday, so don't worry about precipitation along the coast tomorrow. So, Cape May, Island Beach SP, Sandy Hook (especially), and locations along the frontal boundary with Garret being a likely candidate, will all be good places to be tomorrow morning.
Use the radar at the top of this page to see how and when they plays out, or follow me on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) for updates on Thursday night.
Saturday Morning
Clear skies, southwest winds aloft and southeast winds at the surface means migrants will be widespread by Saturday morning. Hit the tried and true migration hotspots on Saturday morning, which should be easy for everyone down in Cape May for the Spring Weekend. All of Cape May will be good territory to cover, but Belleplain will provide a great mix of both migrants and breeders. Additionally, its proximity to the Delaware Bay shore means you can experience many of the great habitats the region has to offer all with minimium travel time.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather
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World Series of Birding Migration Weather Forecast
How's everyone doing on this soggy scout week? Well, the bright side is that the worst of the precipitation is over, and you'll only have to deal with intermittent precipitation as a stationary front backs over us on Wednesday night, and then a series of lows and cold fronts cross the region through the weekend. Each of these events, though, promises to bring more migrants into the mid-Atlantic and increases the likelihood of lots of migrants being around on Saturday.
Wednesday Night
Wednesday night's stationary front will bring some threat of thunderstorms and widespread precipitation up from the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds will be light out of the south, turning southeast by midnight. Heavy migration is expected for the mid-Atlantic and the addition of precipitation may cause migrants to concentrate locally by morning. See the birding forecast below for details.
Thursday Night
The next round of showers will make their way eastward on Thursday night as a weak low pressure system moves toward the coast. Southwest winds will help motivate the eager migrant and we should expect a moderate to heavy push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. West winds into the early hours on Friday will increase the chance of migrants piling up along the coast by morning.
Friday Night
Things clear up during the day on Friday, but a quick moving front will bring a chance of wetness to the region overnight. South winds early on Friday night will again trigger migration into the mid-Atlantic, while by daybreak winds will turn southeasterly favoring inland migrant traps for the World Series of Birding.
Saturday Night
The next cold front is scheduled to move into the region on Saturday, setting up southeasterly flow in advance of the front on Saturday night. This should allow another flight into and out of the region before high pressure builds in on Sunday.
Birding Forecast
Thursday Morning
Migrants + thunderstorms = eager birders.
Right now the models are uncertain as to the amount or intensity of the expected precipitation, but anytime there's a good chance for heavy migration and thunderstorms, you should keep an eye on the radar. Since the precipitation is making its way from the south, we will likely see two migration events take place tonight: the first to the north, moving unimpeded ahead of the front, and the second from the south, migrating into the front. This will likely result in a net loss of migrants in the north (as they move on) and a concentration of migrants in the south (as they hit inclement weather). Therefore, the best birding conditions on Thursday morning will be just south of, or within the, frontal boundary. That said, you'll be best to check the radar tonight and see how this plays out... or follow along on Twitter where I'll be posting regular updates throughout the night (hint: you can read my latest Twitter posts by using the links under the map on this page).
Friday Morning
Despite the precipitation on tap for Thursday evening, it's not looking very intense or organized so far. The one factor that looks to make things interesting, though, is the west wind. With the wind turning more westerly on Friday morning migrants will be pushed toward the coast increasing densities at all coastal migrant traps including Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park, and Brigantine NWR.
Saturday Morning
It's GAME TIME! So if the World Series is the Fall Classic, is the WSOB the Spring Classic? I think it sounds good... I'm gonna run with it.
Southeasterly flow on Friday night will bring new migrants into the mid-Atlantic for Saturday. While the southeast winds will favor inland migrant traps, most locations should see new birds on Saturday morning regardless. Right now it doesn't look like the precipitation will have an appreciable effect on causing birds to land prematurely, so the tried and true migrant traps will be your best bet. Light southeast winds are forecast during the day on Saturday which would bode well for a decent raptor flight.
Sunday Morning
Okay, I've moved out of the bedroom to write this last part. Yeah, if you've got enough cojones to go birding on Mother's Day (or you happen to be a mother, and therefore can dictate whatever happens on Mother's Day), then you'll probably be in good shape for some nice migrant activity. Southeast winds on Saturday night will bring the next push of migrants into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Those of you down in Cape May for the WSOB banquet might hit the Delaware Bay Shore for some new arrivals, while most inland migrant traps across the region will see some good birding conditions as well. Me? Um, I'll be doing some early morning local patch birding (read: "walking the dog") and then it's flowers and pancakes, and occasionally birding by ear from the kitchen window.
If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good luck on a safe and fun World Series of Birding!
David La Puma (member of the Rutgers Scarlet Knight-herons)
Labels: birding, birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather, WSOB
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Migration Weather Forecast
"Get ready to ruuuuummmmmmbbbbbllllleeeeee"
The biggest flights of the spring are lining up this weekend, and with the climbing temperatures we should have some excellent birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic. With a strong cold front extending from Canada down the Ohio Valley, southwesterly winds are forecast to dominate the region through Tuesday. While the result will likely favor the birds over the birder, spring migrant traps will be hopping with new diversity and greater abundance than they have thus far.
Friday Night
These are the nights that we dream about as the winter comes to a close. If you checked the radar last night, you saw widespread migration from the Gulf Coast up into the Great Lakes region, and from Florida up into northern Virginia. The only place relatively absent of migration was the northern mid-Atlantic and the northeast, owing to the persistence of northwesterly winds. Well, these pesky winds have moved out of the region and the southerly flow has begun. Expect migration over the mid-Atlantic to be heavy and widespread on Friday night.
Saturday Night
And the beat goes on... Saturday night will see moderate southwesterly winds, as the low pressure and associated cold front remain to our west. The migration superhighway continues to bring new birds to the mid-Atlantic, while allowing those who are migration-ready to head further north.
Sunday Night
As the low pressure moves further east, and the high pressure dominating our region heads south, we should see winds turning more westerly, and possibly a bit northwest. For now most models predict west winds, and so I'm thinking migration will prevail again on Sunday night.
Monday Night
Here we go again! By Monday it looks like the low stalls again to our west and high pressure kicks back in for the east coast, driving those winds back out of the southwest. Expect another night of heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.
Birding Forecast
Saturday Morning
As I said, this series of nights will favor the bird over the birder. Clear skies and a strong tailwind ensure that birds can maximize their nocturnal flight towards the breeding ground. The good news for birders? The sheer volume of birds moving on Friday night will guarantee a good birding day at any spring migrant trap on Saturday morning. With a little west in the wind, coastal hotspots will be a good bet, but all spots should hold new birds regardless. These next three days should be great for diurnal raptor migration, so be sure to keep an eye to the sky during the day.
Sunday Morning
More migration = more birds. As our winter friends clear out, our migrant breeders and seasonal visitors will be arriving in good numbers. Again, stick to the traditional spring migrant traps for the greatest diversity and density.
Monday Morning
West winds on Sunday night should push migrants toward the coast. Cape May, Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook are all good bets in NJ, and are the best places for a raptor flight on Monday.
Tuesday Morning
More unabated migration on Monday night, coupled with southerly winds, means birds will be well dispersed across the landscape on Tuesday. Belleplain, Garret Mountain, the Great Swamp, the Meadowlands; these are all good places within NJ to check out on Tuesday. Again, a good raptor flight is expected for Tuesday as well.
Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org
Good Birding,
David La Puma
Labels: birds, Cape May, forecast, migration, NJ, NY, PA, weather