Birding Forecast - MidAtlantic

Migration Forecast for May 12 - 16

2008-05-12T18:41:00.004-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Updated 5/13/08 @ 10:04pm...winds turned calm instead of northerly, allowing for moderate to heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic tonight (Tuesday)...see the modified forecast for details...

Migration Weather Forecast

As the intense low pressure system moves offshore today, northerly winds will shut down migration into the mid-Atlantic... but it won't last long. Another cold front will approach the eastern seaboard by Wednesday, setting up southerly flow and triggering migration over the region by Wednesday evening. As high pressure over the southeast will interact with low pressure along the frontal boundary to set up a second night of migration for Thursday night. With plenty of birds already in the region, and more on the way, the birding conditions are really looking good!

Tuesday Night

Winds were originally forecast to be northerly, but have instead backed off to calm. Migration is moderate to heavy as of 10:07pm on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will approach the region on Wednesday, setting up a southwesterly flow along its leading edge. After several nights of poor migration conditions, Wednesday night should see a good push of birds into and out of the mid-Atlantic.

Thursday Night

So far the models show the latest cold front moving slowly across the region between Wednesday and Friday, so Thursday night is also looking good for migration. High pressure over the Southeast should add some westerly flow over the region, pushing birds northeastward across the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Moderate to heavy migration on Tuesday night, coupled with clear skies, will result in migrants being distributed across the landscape. Therefore, spring migrant traps will produce the best birding conditions on Wednesday morning.

Thursday Morning

All fingers are crossed for a big night of migration from Wednesday into Thursday. So far the wind forecast is calling for light southerlies on Wednesday night, and a slight chance of showers for Thursday morning. I don't see this bit of precipitation doing much to concentrate birds, so expect the best birding locations at tried-and-true spring migration hotspots.

Friday Morning

Southwest flow over Thursday night will likely bring another push of birds into the region on Friday morning. With the addition of westerly winds, we should see concentrations of migrants at coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in northeastern New Jersey). The forecast is again calling for a slight chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday, which may slow migrants down, but should do little to concentrate them. Throw the umbrella in the car, and get out there and bird!

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 8 - 12

2008-05-08T12:00:00.001-04:00

Ths.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wow! Birds are arriving by the...er...um...flock-load (?) Yeah, anyway, migrants have really begun showing up in large numbers and high diversity over the last few days. The latter part of this week is going to kick it up a notch as well. Birds arrived in big numbers overnight on Wednesday; and Friday morning is setting up the possibility for fallout conditions. Little migration is expected through the weekend, and it's looking like a wet one for the World Series of Birding, but there's always a bright side, as good numbers of birds will stick around into early next week. So dust off those bins, grab a raincoat, and get out there!

Thursday Night

As this latest front pushes eastward, it will bring west winds and heavy rain to the region. With the southwesterly winds over the Carolinas, we should see another heavy influx of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night.

Friday Night

The front that brought us several nights of heavy migration will pass east of the mid-Atlantic on Friday, allowing for moderate northwesterly winds to build in behind it. Expect little to no migration on Friday night.

Saturday Night

Winds speed will increase and continue from the north, reducing any chance of migration for Saturday night.

Sunday Night

Winds should switch around to the northwest on Sunday, and possibly make it around to westerly by Sunday night. Expect little to no migration on Sunday night unless the winds take a dramatic turn to the west.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Birding conditions should be excellent at Spring migrant traps by Friday morning, and along the frontal boundary where fallouts of migrating birds may occur. Check your local radar to see where heavy rain may have caused birds to land during the early morning hours; these will be the places to check at first light. West winds will likely push birds to the coast, and late morning fallouts of birds returning from over water will favor locations such as Sandy Hook, in northeastern New Jersey.

Saturday - Monday Morning

With no migration expected after Thursday night, birding conditions should remain similar to Friday morning, with additional local movements into optimal foraging habitat. This will provide a great opportunity for those unable to bird the latter part of the workweek to pick up some good birding over the weekend.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 5 - 8 (UPDATED)

2008-05-06T18:41:00.004-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Ths.AM

As of sunset on May 6th, migration is moderate to heavy over the mid-Atlantic with birds heading northwest on light westerly winds

Updated on 5/6/08 at 5:42pm:

The forecast for Tuesday night has changed from north winds to light westerlies which will persist all the way down into the Carolinas. Therefore I've updated the migration forecast for Tuesday night to include a moderate push of birds into the region, and increased the probability of birds overshooting the coast on Thursday morning. Otherwise we're still right on track for a big push of birds into the region on Wednesday night, as the front advances to the coast. The birding conditions continue to impress... so get out there and enjoy the fun!

Migration Weather Forecast

Alright! The Central, Mississippi and Eastern flyways have each been experiencing some heavy migration over the last few nights, bringing many birds into the northern reaches of the United States and Canada. The result has been a great increase in both diversity and density across the mid-Atlantic region, and the best birding conditions we have seen this spring. Single-digit "warbler days" have turned to double-digits, and spring migration "hotspots" such as Garret Mountain, in New Jersey, are really living up to their reputation with reports of "wave after wave of birds overhead" eventually coming over the mountain and "swarming like insects" before landing. If you haven't experienced this type of migration spectacle (an in my opinion, you really must) you should have a chance by the end of this week!

As for the forecast, the cold front responsible for the latest migration events has now pushed to our east, while the resulting high pressure has set up northwest winds across the mid-Atlantic. Northerly upper-level and surface winds are forecast to persist until Wednesday morning, which will lead to little or no migration until after mid-week. The next cold front is forecast to arrive on Wednesday night, setting us up for some heavy migration into Thursday morning.

Sunday Night

Northwest winds, both aloft and at the surface, should keep migration to a minimum on Sunday night.

Monday Night

A weak front will push down from Canada on Monday, but is expected to dissipate over the region overnight. This will set up light westerly winds and probably allow for a small movement of birds over the region. So far I wouldn't expect much in terms of incoming birds, but we could see some shorter-distance migration events.

Tuesday Night

Winds will be light westerly over the entire mid-Atlantic, setting us up for a moderate push of birds into the region. The direction and strength of the westerly winds will determine how far birds get pushed to the coast, but we could see some overshooting at places like Sandy Hook.

Wednesday Night

Here comes the next cold front! The front is expected to move into the region on Wednesday night, and if it does, expect southerly flow to arrive in advance of it. Wednesday night should be the next big flight into the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Birding conditions are great right now! Don't be fooled by the "at-a-glance" forecast; that's only indicating that no new birds are expected to arrive on Monday morning. In reality, all the new birds that arrived over the last few nights will make birding on Monday an easy diversion from going to work.

Tuesday Morning

The possibility that west winds on Monday night could trigger some migration, will mean that birds may shift eastward on Tuesday morning. Birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic will be good on Tuesday morning, while diversity will most likely remain similar to the last few days.

Wednesday Morning

With moderate levels of migration on a clear night, we should see some turnover at spring migrant traps, with older birds having moved out overnight, and new ones arriving by Wednesday morning. Stick to the spring migrant traps for the best birding, and depending on the amount of west wind in the morning, consider heading to coastal hotspots (such as Sandy Hook, in New Jersey).

Thursday Morning

Thursday morning will be the one to look out for, with heavy migration into the region expected. Thus far the models are not predicting any precipitation overnight, so birds will be well dispersed across the landscape by morning. Southwest winds will push birds to the northeast, and migration should be widespread across the entire mid-Atlantic, therefore the tried-and-true spring migrant hotspots will be the best bet for Thursday morning.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for May 5 - 8

2008-05-04T10:47:00.003-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Ths.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Northwest winds, both aloft and at the surface, should keep migration to a minimum on Sunday night.

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

North winds are back on the menu for Tuesday night, but with the next cold front on the way, the lull can't last long. Expect little to no migration for Tuesday evening.

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Tuesday Morning

Wednesday Morning

Similar conditions to Tuesday morning will persist through Wednesday, as little to no birds are expected to move on Tuesday night.

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 30 - May 4

2008-04-30T07:38:00.003-04:00

Wed.PM	Thr.AM	Thr.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wednesday Night

Northwest winds will keep migration to a minimum on Wednesday night, but have no fear, more migration is on the way!

Thursday Night

As a strong cold front approached from the west, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will set up southerly flow across the region and trigger moderate levels of migration for Thursday night.

Friday Night

The migration pattern should hold, as the cold front slowly pushes eastward. Expect moderate levels of migration on Friday night as well.

Saturday Night

If the forecast holds, we should expect another night of migration on Saturday... could this be the big push we've been waiting for??? It IS May already!

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Little to no migration is expected for Wednesday night, so birding conditions will be similar to previous days.

Friday Morning

South winds and clear skies on Thursday night will lead to a night of well-dispersed migrants. Tried-and-true spring migration hotspots will be the best bet for Friday morning.

Saturday Morning

As of right now, a front is expected to extend across the mid-Atlantic on Friday night/ Saturday morning, which could cause some unstable weather and maybe concentrate migrants along the frontal boundary. I'll leave out the possibility for a "fallout" right now, but we'll have to keep an eye on it. Either way, birding conditions should be good on Saturday morning.

Sunday Morning

Similar to Saturday, the front should extend farther down into the mid-Atlantic, possibly creating a barrier to birds heading north, and causing localized concentrations of birds. I'll have to update this forecast as we approach the weekend an the weather becomes more predictable. In the meantime, keep the weekend open for birding!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 27 - 30

2008-04-27T11:29:00.009-04:00

Tonight	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tues.AM	Tues.PM	Wed.AM

May is right around the corner, but even without a calendar you could probably have guessed the date just by checking out your local woodlot. Raptor migration is kicking off with increasing numbers of falcons and accipiters being reported over the mid-Atlantic. Short-distance migrants continue to thin out, while long-distance migrants such as vireos, warblers, and flycatchers increase in both diversity and abundance. This is definitely a great time to be birding!

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

The mid-Atlantic is currently bound by a cold front (to our west) and a warm front (to our north), both of which will be moving east and north respectively, during the day today. Southerly flow over North Carolina will likely trigger migration into southern Virginia, and strong thunderstorms in the early morning on Monday may lead to fallouts there as well. For the rest of the mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, PA, NJ) migration will be light at best.

Monday Night

As the front presses eastward, low pressure dominates the region, and moisture is brought up into the mid-Atlantic, winds will turn southerly and thunderstorm activity may reach severe levels. Fortunately, the current forecast is calling for the most severe thunderstorm activity to end by 8:00am, in enough time for birds to take flight. If this pans out, we could see a very large movement of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night.

Tuesday Night

Winds will turn westerly on Tuesday, and northwesterly on Tuesday night, causing migration to shut down and bringing cold air back across the region.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Migration into the region will be heaviest along the south coast of the mid-Atlantic, decreasing as one moves north over the region. Fallout conditions are possible over southeastern Virginia, but for the rest of the mid-Atlantic there will be little to no influx of new birds.

Tuesday Morning

Migration into the region should be heavy, and the widespread presence of rain will keep birds from migrating very far overnight. Therefore, birding conditions on Tuesday morning should be very good at spring migrant hotspots across the region.

Wednesday Morning

Sometimes no migration is good for birding, and if all plays out as planned, that will be the case for Wednesday morning. Good numbers and diversity of birds should be present at many locations on Wednesday morning, as northwest winds will have kept most birds from moving on Tuesday night.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 24 - 27

2008-04-24T22:10:00.006-04:00

Pretty soon the new at-a-glance forecast feature will be at the top of each post... we're just working out a few kinks before we can launch it, but will have it up very soon. In the meantime you can get an idea by the cool legend that Laura has put at the top of this page.

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

High pressure over the region will set up northerly winds aloft, with light and variable winds at the surface, allowing moderate levels of migration into the mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

Winds will turn southerly for Friday night, as low pressure approaches from the west. While winds will vary to our south, there should be enough southerly component across the region to allow for widespread migration.

Saturday Night

Low pressure will track to our northwest on Saturday and interact with high pressure off the Carolinas. This will cause southwesterly winds over the southeast, and southerly winds over the western mid-Atlantic. While winds over the eastern mid-Atlantic will remain light and easterly, the influx of birds from these two systems could result in a large influx of birds on Saturday night. Coupled with the possibility of thunderstorms, we may be setting up for possible fallout conditions.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Good numbers of birds will be arriving on Friday morning, and without any precipitation in the forecast, the best bets will be tried and true spring migration hotspots.

Saturday Morning

Similar to Friday morning, except that more birds should be moving into the region with the light southerly winds on Friday night. Again, hit the spring migrant traps since birds will be dispersed across the landscape.

Sunday Morning

Sunday morning will be the big question mark right now, but given the possibility of good migration conditions on Saturday night, and intense thunderstorms late in the night/ early Sunday morning, I'll entertain the possibility of a fallout along the frontal boundary. I'll update this part of the forecast if it should change between now and then.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24 (UPDATED)

2008-04-23T20:54:00.001-04:00

UPDATE: 8:47 PM on 4/23/08...More birds are heading into the northern mid-Atlantic tonight, as winds are light and southerly...the general trajectory is from the SW-->NE...see the birding forecast below for more details

Migration Recap

Nice clear skies, favorable winds, and a lack of precipitation set the stage for heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic this past weekend. Reports across the region ranged from big pushes of short-distance migrants such as White-throated Sparrows and Golden-crowned Kinglets, large numbers of early migrants such as Palm and Yellow-rumped Warblers and Ruby-crowned Kinglets, to the new arrivals of long-distance migrants such as Eastern Kingbird, Blue-headed and White-eyed Vireo, House Wren, Northern Parula, Black-throated Green, Black-and-white, and Yellow warblers. Excellent migration conditions often results in only moderately good birding conditions since birds are moving maximum distances and dispersing across the landscape when landing in the morning. For this reason it's best to choose 'spring migration hotspots' on the mornings following heavy, unimpeded migration. These locations attract migrants due to their topography or geographic location (in relation to the general migration patterns along specific flyways) in combination with their quality of stopover foraging habitat. Some examples are Sandy Hook, a large spit of land extending north from the northeast coast of New Jersey, Garret Mountain, another New Jersey gem at the northeast end of the Watchung mountains, and New York City's Central Park, an 'island' of quality habitat in a 'sea' of urbanization; Of course each of these locations has it's own optimal conditions for attracting migrants, but all of them will produce better on-average birding conditions during the spring. If you don't already have them staked out, check with your local Audubon Society or birding club to find out the name and location of your nearest spring hotspot, and get ready to head there after the next big flight!

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Low pressure moving slowly eastward across North Carolina is interacting with high pressure over the mid-Atlantic, causing an easterly flow over most of the region. Stormy weather to the south and less-than-optimal winds to the north are stifling migration tonight.

Monday Night

The low is expected to track slowly to the south and east during the early part of the week, bringing with it more unstable weather and uncooperative winds. Therefore the migration forecast for Monday night is looking very similar to Sunday night, with little to none expected.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the low should be south of the Delmarva Peninsula, taking with it any unstable weather. The current wind forecast for the Delmarva includes a northeasterly component, which would not bode well for migration. Should the winds lighten up, or should migrants become restless after several nights of poor conditions, we might see a push into the region as early as Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

A weak cold front will reach the region on Wednesday night, increasing the potential for migration. So far there is no precipitation associated with the front so migrants will likely be distributed across the landscape on Thursday.

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Migration is on hold for the early part of the week, but after several nights of heavy movement there are still plenty of birds across the region yet to be found. Mild temperatures and partly sunny days, combined with lots of birds, makes for some very nice birding conditions! Add to that some easterly winds to push ocean-going species closer to shore, or push migrating diurnal raptors inland, and I'm starting to consider playing hooky myself.

Thursday Morning

If the cold front scenario plays out on Wednesday night, we could see a push of birds both out-of and into the region by Thursday morning. The best locations will depend on the dominant wind direction during the migration event. Given the lack of precipitation in the forecast, the potential for fallout conditions is low, with birding conditions being best at spring migration hotspots.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24 (UPDATED)

2008-04-23T20:54:00.000-04:00

Migration Recap

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 20 - 24

2008-04-23T20:50:00.002-04:00

Migration Recap

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

Monday Night

Tuesday Night

Wednesday Night

Birding Forecast

Monday - Wednesday

Thursday Morning

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 17 - 20

2008-04-17T15:27:00.002-04:00

Weekend Outlook

It's very easy to over-analyze the weather, and the next couple of days have been particularly frustrating (not to mention last night... don't get me started). The bottom line is we have a cold front approaching the region from the west (as most of our fronts do) and one offshore to our east. In the middle (where we are) we have two high pressure systems (one to our south, and one two our north). Because winds blow from high to low pressure and we're sandwiched between four systems, our winds 'don't know where to turn', resulting in a relatively stable and calm climate but less-than-certain conditions for migration. While migration over the next few nights will be dictated by this 'weather tango', the current outlook is good for new arrivals and a steady increase in density. The ability to predict precipitation seems as much or more uncertain as the winds, so for right now we'll bank on no precipitation, and migrants being well dispersed across the landscape upon landing. With that long caveat, I give you my latest migration forecast:

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday Night

Winds aloft (3000 ft) should be out of the northwest and west over most of the region, with winds being variable to southerly at the surface. With clear skies for easy navigation, we should see a push of birds into and over the region tonight. Surface winds will vary between west and southeast, so I'll advise checking the radar during the night to determine which direction birds decided to migrate.

Something to note is the strong southerly flow up the Mississippi and Central flyways on Thursday night, coupled with strong upper-level winds from the west blowing over Pennsylvania and New York. It seems possible that some of the Trans-Gulf migrants making their way up these more westerly flyways could be redirected into the eastern mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

On Friday night the winds along the coast are forecast to be northwesterly, while inland they appear to be variable at best. Again, this could lead to another influx of birds on clear skies depending on how many migration-ready birds are around.

Saturday Night

Saturday night appears to have the best chance for a big flight, as the cold front should be close enough to the mid-Atlantic to create a southerly wind gradient at the interface between the low and high pressure systems. The precipitation forecast for Saturday night is very uncertain, so for now we'll bet on migrants having a clear shot over the region.

Birding Forecast

Friday - Sunday

With three nights of migration on our agenda, the birding should be good throughout the weekend. Because I don't expect any significant precipitation on any of the next three nights, birds will be well dispersed across the landscape and concentrated only where they overshoot the coast or along the major riparian and montane flyways. Stick to the tried-and-true spring migration hotspots and you shouldn't be disappointed. Since birding conditions depend on the number of birds entering the area, I would expect that Sunday would have the greatest apparent density and diversity of the weekend, but as I said before, the strong southerly flow over the southern US on Thursday night could help bring some interesting birds into the region for Friday morning. Blue skies are still on the agenda at least into Saturday, so get out there and enjoy the beautiful birds and weather!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 15 - 18

2008-04-15T21:22:00.006-04:00

Forecast Update

As of sunset on Wednesday night birds appear to be migrating across the entire Mid-Atlantic. Northerly winds that were forecast for the region have not appeared, and light winds at the surface are allowing migration-ready birds to take advantage of the clear skies. See the updated birding forecast for more details.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday - Thursday Night

High pressure over the region is causing a general northwesterly flow, but calm and variable winds over New Jersey and the northeastern US are allowing for some migration out of the region tonight. Over the Delmarva Peninsula winds are still strong and out of the northwest, keeping birds from migrating into the northern mid-Atlantic states. Migration on Wednesday night will depend on how light the winds become after sunset (see the birding forecast for updated information). The next cold front will slowly approach the eastern flyway at the end of the week, but for now it still looks like we'll be getting light northerly winds through Thursday night. Since north winds are expected to be stronger to our south, the mid-Atlantic should not expect much in the way of new arrivals through Friday morning.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday - Friday

The general birding forecast still holds: Blue skies, cool breeze, and lots of birds around. Birds are moving into the region as of Wednesday night and will be dispersed across the landscape on Thursday and Friday mornings. Tried and true spring migrant traps will be the best locations for both mornings.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 14 - 17

2008-04-14T07:26:00.002-04:00

Migration Recap

If nocturnal bird migration is any indicator, spring has clearly sprung over the mid-Atlantic. Since last Tuesday we've seen a migration superhighway extending across the region, starting in the western mid-Atlantic and eventually shifting eastward all the way to the coast. On Thursday large flocks of early migrants such as Yellow-rumped Warblers, Eastern Phoebes, Hermit Thrush, Golden-crowned Kinglets, and Song Sparrows were reported in Central New Jersey, while Louisiana Waterthrush were both setting up territories (Belleplain SP, NJ) and moving through in good numbers (Garret Mountain, NJ; and various locations). Friday and Saturday nights brought a heavy influx of new birds into the region, resulting in more Blue-gray Gnatcatchers, Palm Warblers, and Ruby-crowned Kinglets, small numbers of Ovenbirds, Prairie Warblers, Northern Parula warblers (Cape May, NJ), and an early report of a Summer Tanager and Blue Grosbeak (Sandy Hook, NJ). Aside from the wonderful plumage of many of these birds, the dawn chorus is really starting to ramp up... time to dust off those tapes/cd's/mp3 players! (8-track, anyone?)

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight - Wednesday Night

High pressure has built in over the entire eastern seaboard, bringing with it moderate northwest winds. Migration is not expected through Wednesday night. Check back here often as the weather may change (or use the handy new RSS feed link above to get the latest reports sent right to your RSS reader!)

Birding Forecast

Monday - Thursday

Blue skies, cool breeze (okay, so as I type this it's just above freezing... but the daytime highs are looking nice!), and lots of birds around. Pick your favorite spot and go birding!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 11 - 14

2008-04-11T22:05:00.004-04:00

Migration Recap

During the last two nights we've seen some heavy migration into the Mid-Atlantic, and it looks like it will continue through the weekend. Diversity is slowly changing from south to north, with the appearance of Northern Parulas, Prairie Warblers and Ovenbirds, and a good flight of Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers all down in Cape May, NJ. Up in the northern part of the region, large flocks of Golden-crowned Kinglets, Song Sparrows, Eastern Phoebes, and Northern Flickers are still being reported, but small numbers of Northern Rough-winged, Barn, and an odd Bank Swallow are providing signs that the Neotropical wave is about to wash over the entire region. It's a wonderful time to be birding in the Mid-Atlantic!

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

By Friday a second (and stronger) cold front will be approaching from the west. This will set up a strong southerly wind gradient along the east coast, and open up the potential for another big push into the region.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be parked right along the east coast and winds should switch around to westerly. The forecast is calling for precipitation, which may reduce the amount of birds on the wing overnight. For now it looks like the winds will be right for moderate levels of migration into the region, but will likely be tempered by the intensity of any precipitation.

Sunday Night

By Sunday night the front will push off the east coast and high pressure will build in from the northwest. Winds will be out of the north, effectively shutting down migration over the Mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

More migration into the region coupled with some intense thunderstorms will mean new birds, increased diversity, and the possibility for fallout conditions where birds and weather intersect. The entire region will experience an influx of new birds by Saturday morning. Grab a raincoat and go birding!

Sunday Morning

Birding on Sunday morning will be good at worst, and great at best. If the precipitation causes birds to think twice about migrating, the same conditions that existed on Saturday morning will continue through the weekend. Should birds decide to migrate on the west/southwest winds, the region will experience the third successive influx of migrants, favoring all coastal locations as well as inland migrant traps.

Monday Morning

Monday might be the "nicest" day for birding, simply because the rain should have moved out, and the north winds on Sunday night will have precluded birds from leaving the region. For those of you who don't need to be at work on Monday morning, head to your favorite migrant trap!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 8 - 11

2008-04-08T07:39:00.005-04:00

Updated 4/11/08

MIGRATION ALERT FOR MD, DE, PA, and NJ: Heavy migration last night will produce great birding conditions this morning (at least before the heavy rains begin). Spring migrant traps (such as Garret Mountain or Belleplain State Forest in NJ) should be the best bets for coastal states, as no weather was present to concentrate birds. For the interior states, areas along the frontal boundary which experienced heavy rainfall early this morning should be best.

Updated 4/9/08

Changes in the weather forecast over the last 24 hours have lead me to update the migration and birding forecasts. Be on alert for strong migration tonight (Wednesday night) and the possibility of good birding tomorrow and Friday.

Migration Recap

As far as nocturnal migration goes, we are officially in a 'holding pattern', and have been since last weekend. High pressure over the region has set up a northeasterly flow and reduced the chance of migration into the Mid-Atlantic, while a stationary front over the Ohio Valley has allowed birds an inland passage into the Northeast.

Despite the recent dry spell, the birding across the Mid-Atlantic is pretty great right now, with many songbirds piling up in anticipation of migration, as well as many non-songbirds actively migrating throughout the region. Great Blue Herons and Great Egrets are showing up in good numbers, and the views of Red-throated loons can be downright awesome, with double-digit groups viewable at coastal locations such as the Concrete Ship in Cape May. On the songbird front, early warblers such as Pine, Yellow-throated and Louisiana Waterthrush are on territories, while Palms are just beginning to move through the region. If all the migration going on in the southern half of the country is any indication, we're in store for a real wallop of birds over the next ten days. Bring on the cold fronts!

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

No migration expected given northwest winds.

Wednesday Night

A cold front will cross the region overnight, causing winds to turn south and southwesterly during the night and early morning. This front has already produced heavy migration across the Central and Mississippi Flyways, as well as the western portion of the Eastern Flyway (on Tuesday night), therefore I expect the same to occur over the greater Eastern Flyway on Wednesday night. This should result in a heavy influx of birds overnight.

Thursday Night

The front that passed on Wednesday night will probably stall over the region on Thursday, and winds will differ in relation to the frontal boundary. Migration conditions should be favorable south of the front (which is expected to bisect the region over central New Jersey), whereas northwest winds will build in to the north. Identifying this boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

Friday Night

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

~~Minus a few birds from the northern part of the region that might get out on easterly winds on Tuesday night, conditions should remain pretty much the same as the last few days.~~ Based on the radar from this morning, it appears that the front approached the region faster than anticipated. Birds did migrate along the western half of the Eastern Flyway, bringing new birds up into Pennsylvania, Maryland, western Virginia, and western New Jersey.

Thursday Morning

Thursday morning has great birding potential, based on the patterns of migration already caused by the approaching front. I'll go with the optimistic forecast for now, and hope for southwest winds to guide birds into the region from the Delmarva Peninsula. Given the wind direction and lack of precipitation in the forecast the best places for finding birds, then, will be spring migrant traps such as Garret Mountain (in central NJ), Sandy Hook (north coast of NJ), and Long Beach, Long Island (NY).

Friday Morning

With a backing warm front and southeast winds, we could see an influx of birds into the southern part of the region. Identification of the frontal boundary will be key in determining the best birding locations for Friday morning.

4/11/08: I have posted the most recent conditions to www.woodcreeper.com.

Because of the model uncertainty I'll be updating this forecast as conditions change, so check back often!

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration forecast for April 6 - 8

2008-04-06T11:02:00.003-04:00

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday - Tuesday Night

It appears we are heading into a little migration dry spell, as the forecast for the early part of the week is calling for northeast winds across the region, and north winds to our south. This will most likely limit any incoming migration. Additionally, conditions will improve over the Northeast, which may allow for an exodus of migration-ready birds out of the region. In the meantime, birding conditions should be good across the Mid-Atlatic as a nice influx of birds arrived on Friday night/ Saturday morning.

Birding Forecast

Sunday - Tuesday

Plenty of birds are being reported across the region with some new arrivals such as Palm Warblers at Sandy Hook, and an early Eastern Kingbird in Salem Co., NJ. Large flocks of Juncos, Golden-crowned Kinglets, and White-throated Sparrows are also being seen piling up as they head north. This is the "time of transition" when we're really going to see diversity shift before our eyes. With the influx of new birds on Friday night, and the lack of migration over the last two nights, birding conditions remain good across the Mid-Atlantic. Best locations will be those that provide optimal foraging habitat (as opposed to coastal areas where birds may have landed on Saturday morning). This pattern should hold through Tuesday, with the slight chance that some birds migrate out of the area from the northern part of the region.

For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Migration Forecast for April 4 - 6

2008-04-04T15:29:00.006-04:00

Migration Alert for Friday Night - April 4

The weather models have changed for tonight (Friday night), therefore I have decided to update the migration and birding forecasts. Changes have been italicised for easy location. Change is good!!

Migration Recap

Last weekend we saw a strong front push through the region, allowing many birds to leave the mid-Atlantic on their northerly pursuit, but also bringing with it plenty of the expected species and a few surprises. Of the kinglets, Ruby-crowned are beginning to make their presence felt, as the large flocks of Golden-crowned are heading north. Eastern Phoebes are everywhere now, and Tree Swallows are already defending territories. Chipping Sparrows have joined the party, as have Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers (in the southern part of the region, at least). Still Common Redpolls are being spotted at local feeders, while I received a very early report of four Indigo Buntings visiting a feeder on Tuesday, in Hackettstown, New Jersey.

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will eventually lead to heavy precipitation moving over the Mid-Atlantic. Similar to last week, Friday night will experience a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic, at least until the progressing front shuts it down sometime during the night. This should allow for a good influx of migrant into the region and increase the chance of LOCALIZED FALLOUTS at the point where the front intercepts migrating birds.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northerly, shutting down migration over the region until the passage of the next front.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

The current weather forecast suggests that good migration conditions will exist across the southeast and Gulf states, with strong southerly flow directing birds into the Mid-Atlantic region. Since a front is forecast to cross the region during the early morning hours, the radar will be the best tool for determining where the front intersects the migration "cloud". The best birding locations will be those at the intersection. Since the overnight winds are going to be out of the southwest, coastal locations will be favored (such as Sandy Hook in NJ). Rain is expected to persist into Saturday, although most of the rain should have passed beyond the northern part of the region by morning. If all goes as planned (ha!) it should be worth dragging along the added raincoat.

Sunday Morning

When weighing bird density AND comfort, Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around. Bird densities will be highest wherever they ended up Saturday morning, but will also disperse into optimal foraging habitat thorughout the weekend (such as Belleplain State Forest in New Jersey).

I'll update this forecast on Sunday by noon (unless things change drastically beforehand) but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Birds and weather heading this way

2008-04-03T18:36:00.007-04:00

Migration Recap

The next front is on the way, with southerly winds already announcing its arrival, and a weekend's worth of nasty weather showing up on the national Doppler radar.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

By Thursday night - light south winds will build in as a cold front approaches from the west. Moist air will travel up the front, destabilizing the atmosphere over the region, and leading to a chance of thunderstorms. Because of the unstable weather to the south, I don't expect much migration into the region, therefore migration will likely result in a net-loss of birds from the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

A cold front will reach the region on Friday night, bringing with it strong southerly winds early in the night as the front pushes east. This front will also bring with it a strong moisture laden low-pressure system from the south, which will lead to heavy precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic, and possibly some snow/sleet inland. Similar to last week, Friday night will produce a strong wind gradient from the SW to NE, connecting the Gulf Coast with the Mid-Atlantic. This should allow for a good influx of southern migrant as far north as Virgina, and possibly further depending on the severity of regional precipitation.

Saturday Night

By Saturday night the front should be just offshore and winds are forecast to turn northwesterly. Migration over the northern part of the region will cease at this point, but migration to the south could give us a glimpse of things to come during the next front early next week.

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning

Migration out of the region, coupled with little to no influx of new birds, should result in a decline in apparent migrants at most locations. Because of the southeasterly flow, inland sites in the northern region may pick up some new birds by morning and will therefore be the best bet for bird density on Friday. The forecasted rain may make for unfavorable birding conditions anyway.

Saturday Morning

After a night of southwesterly winds it will be good to check the radar and decide whether birds did, indeed, migrate through the rain. If not, the conditions will remain similar to Friday... but if they did, it'll be important to determine if and when birds were forced to land. Otherwise, the east coast will be favored given the southwesterly flow. The precipitation forecast for Saturday morning? RAIN RAIN RAIN.

Sunday Morning

Sunday may be the best day to "beat the bushes" and see what's around since the forecast is calling for NW winds and clear skies. Birding conditions will be contingent on whether birds were able (willing?) to push through the precipitation into the region.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Big migration on the way

2008-03-31T19:46:00.020-04:00

Updated: April 2, 2008 @ 11:23 AM
Winds have switched around to the NW overnight, so no migration is expected for this evening. The Wednesday Night/ Thursday Morning forecast has been removed to reflect this switch. A new forecast for the rest of the week will be posted by Thursday afternoon. Hopefully you're out there finding the migrants that showed up last night/ this morning!
Good Birding - DLP

As promised, migration is really picking up as of tonight. A powerful low pressure system is moving slowly northeastward across the Great Lakes, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient as it approaches the east coast. Favorable winds coupled with the prospect of rain each night are tempting me to cry "FALLOUT!"... but I will restrain myself, as It's still early in the migration season and birds aren't desperate to migrate as of yet. Still, we could see some of the first large-scale migration over the next two nights, so read the forecast below, clean off your binoculars, and get ready to bird.

Migration Weather Forecast

Tonight

Low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure off the eastern seaboard are creating a strong southerly wind gradient over the Mid-Atlantic. Tonight expect southeasterly winds at the surface, with strong southerly winds around 3000 feet which, together, will definitely trigger migration over the region. Winds are expected to be southerly over Virginia and the Carolinas, which will really help bring new birds into the Mid-Atlantic for Monday morning. Rainfall tonight should be light which reduces the chance of a localized fallout, but be sure to check the radar in the morning to be sure a thunderstorm didn't pop up in yout area during the night.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night low pressure will have moved east into Quebec, shifting the wind direction to southwest, and creating a direct trajectory from the Gulf Coast up into the Northeastern US. Again, precipitation is forecast for Tuesday night with an increased chance of late-night thunderstorms. This type of precipitation has the potential to cause localized fallout conditions, so keeping an eye on the weather will be imperetive for choosing the best birding location on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night the low pressure system will have pushed into Newfoundland, and high pressure will build in behind the front, turning the winds around to the WNW. Should the winds remain more westerly, and given the forecast for strong southerly flow up the central flyway, we could see typically western species being redirected to the east coast, although this type of prediction is much less... well... predictable. Alternatively, if the winds remain northwesterly we can expect a halt in migration until the next front makes its way to the east on Friday.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Southeasterly surface winds will favor inland locations such as the northern Delaware Bay shore (NJ), the Delaware River floodplain (PA and NJ) and Garret Mountain (NJ). Because of the chance of precipitation it will be a good idea to check the radar in the morning to see if and where birds were forced to land due to weather.

Wednesday Morning

The wind-shift to southwesterly will favor coastal locations across the mid-Atlantic, such as Sandy Hook (NJ) and Cape May (NJ). With thunderstorms possible it will be important to check the radar to determine if and when birds were forced to land. Since winds will be strong, birds may overshoot the coast and therefore we could experience late-morning fallouts at coastal locations. Hopefully the southwesterly flow will bring more southerly migrants to the region and increase the chance of a western vagrant species.

Thursday Morning

While not as easy to predict, the strong westerly winds forecast for Wednesday night could lead to more displaced western birds by Thursday morning (although the probability is quite low given how early it is in the spring). Otherwise, if the wind switches to the northwest, migration will likely shut down until the next cold front approaches our area on Friday.

I'll update this forecast on Wednesday afternoon, but in the meantime you can find me on www.woodcreeper.com each morning interpreting the radar. For information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

No April fools- Just lots of birds

2008-03-30T06:34:00.010-04:00

Migration has slowed a bit over the last few days, but don't you go getting used to it, because migration into the Mid-Atlantic is about to ramp up, bigtime. A powerful low pressure system is moving slowly northeastward across the Great Lakes, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient as it approaches the east coast. We could see favorable winds in our region as early as Sunday night, improving greatly through Monday and Tuesday. The possibility of rain early in the week could also set us up for some fallout conditions.

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday

By tonight the low pressure system is still expected to be west of the Great Lakes, setting up strong migration conditions over the Mississippi and Central Flyways. The Mid-Atlantic could see winds turn southeasterly as early as tonight which would set off some migration over the region. Winds are expected to remain easterly along the southern half of the Eastern Flyway, reducing the chance of influx into the Mid-Atlantic tonight.

Monday

By Monday night low pressure will be situated over northern Ontario, causing winds over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US to turn southerly. Expect a big push of birds into the region overnight on Monday, with excellent migration conditions extending down through the Carolinas. The forecast is calling for a 50% chance of rain as well, which may produce concentrations of birds along precipitation boundaries.

Tuesday

By Tuesday night the low is expected to be offshore, creating a southwesterly wind gradient from the Gulf Coast all the way up into the Northeastern US. This pattern is very favorable for bringing Trans-Gulf migrants to the region, many of which have been making landfall from the Yucatan over the last couple of night (and more are expected through the weekend). Again, precipitaion is possible on Tuesday night, so keep an eye on the weather to determine the best birding locations for Wednesday morning.

Birding Forecast

As you can see from the migration forecast, we've got some serious birding in store for the Mid-Atlantic! Because of the wind forecast tonight, I wouldn't expect much in terms of new diversity for tomorrow morning, although inland sites should see an increase in individuals given the easterly flow. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are really shaping up as the best bets for birding in the region, with the weather on Monday night favoring inland sites, and Tuesday night favoring coastal locations. Again, with the prospect of precipitation it will pay off to check the weather before heading out, to see if and where birds were forced to land.

You can find the latest weather radar and migration analysis each morning on my website, www.woodcreeper.com, your one-stop-shop for pre-birding decisions in and around New Jersey.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Weekend migration outlook

2008-03-28T06:42:00.006-04:00

New birds arrived overnight as the low pressure associated with a stalled cold front made its way offshore early this morning. The migration cloud extended from the Carolinas up into the southern half of New Jersey, with lighter amounts extending up into the central and northern reaches of the Garden State this morning.

Migration Weather Forecast

Friday – Sunday

With the front now offshore, high pressure will build in today and bring north/northwest winds to the region, effectively shutting down any major migration for the weekend. Another low pressure system is expected at the beginning of the week, which should drive winds around to the east as early as Sunday night. Therefore there is a slight possibility that birds will move on Sunday night, but the majority of migration will be reserved for early next week.

Next Week

The next warm front will approach the region by Monday, bringing with it moderate southeasterly flow on Monday and Tuesday, and the possibility of some precipitation as well. Migration conditions look good for both Monday and Tuesday night, and depending on the amount of precipitation, we could see localized concentrations of migrants following these flights. Following the passage of the front, high pressure will again build in with strong northerly winds and therefore cause a break in the migration flow by midweek.

Birding Forecast

The birding just keeps getting better. Last night's flight should produce some new birds across the region, with the largest turnover from southern New Jersey southward. In the absence of cooperative weather over the next two days, we should see only localized movements of migrants as they search for better foraging habitat. Spring migrant traps will be the best bet as well, while places like Belleplain Forest along the northern Delaware Bay should be good locations for picking up newly arriving breeders. Eastern Phoebes have become more numerous over the last few days, as have several species of swallow (tree and northern rough-winged). A Nashville Warbler made an early appearance at Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, giving us a taste of things soon to come!

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Spring Migration Forecast: Week of March 25

2008-03-25T21:57:00.009-04:00

Jetlag has set in (despite my best attempts to avoid it) as I arrived from New Zealand early this morning, but already I'm pouring over the latest weather and birding reports from around the Mid-Atlantic… spring migration is ramping up for sure!

Over the last three weeks we've seen American Woodcocks marching northwards, and more recently large flocks of Red-winged Blackbirds have been making their way to New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and into the northeastern US. Just this week Eastern Phoebes have been appearing across New Jersey (the first one was reported about two weeks ago), as have a few Pine Warblers, our 'early' warbler of spring here in the Garden State. Additionally, the winter specialties that have graced the Mid-Atlantic this year (such as Common Redpolls, Evening Grosbeaks, and Northern Shrikes) are still being seen, making this a great time for a 'mixed-bag' of birds at many locations. What will the next south winds bring us? Maybe a Louisiana Waterthrush? Some Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers? Maybe…

More than likely we'll see a good push of short-distance migrants, such as Fox Sparrows, Golden-crowned Kinglets, etc., with a few more Phoebes thrown in, and the possibility of one of the aforementioned two early migrating species. This time last year we had good numbers of Fox Sparrows and Winter Wrens hanging around the state, many of which were putting on full vocal performances early in the morning. More than anything, this is a great time to get out in the field and listen to the dawn chorus as it develops and diversifies with each passing day. It looks like we'll have some good migration weather over the next few days, so get out there and enjoy the birds!

Migration Weather Forecast

Today – Thursday

Tonight a cold front is approaching from the Ohio Valley, which will mean steady southerly winds in advance of the front. Expect migration conditions to be favorable tonight across the Mid-Atlantic, although in the absence of precipitation, migrants will be dispersed across the landscape and therefore difficult to detect (see below).

Tomorrow the front will stall over the Mid-Atlantic, allowing high pressure build in and bring with it northwesterly winds to PA, DE, MD and NJ, while VA and NC will still be under southwesterly winds, and therefore should experience some migration. The front will move east and south during the day on Thursday, which will likely restrict migrating birds from entering the Mid-Atlantic.

The Weekend Outlook

A fast moving front will make its way across the region on Friday, and depending on the timing, could result in some southerly winds on Friday night, changing over to northerly as the front passes. Coupled with precipitation, this might provide the best opportunity to concentrate migrants along a frontal boundary… but trying to predict such events this far ahead is not very wise so we'll have to wait and see how the forecast shapes up later in the week. Once the front passes, north winds will build in behind it and keep migration to a minimum through the remainder of the weekend.

Birding Forecast

The migration conditions for this week suggest that little or no precipitation will affect migrating birds, therefore the best bets for birding will be the tried-and-true migration hotspots (such examples for New Jersey are Cape May in fall, and Garret Mountain in spring). Of course, this column focuses primarily on passerine migration, but as you know, many other birds are migrating in March as well. Large numbers of sea ducks (Scoters, Long-tailed Ducks, etc.) are migrating just off shore, and can put on a spectacular show at locations such as Cape May. Loons, both Red-throated and Common, are also making their way north, and can gather in both coastal estuaries and inland ponds, sometimes in staggering numbers. Shorebirds as well are beginning to show up along the Delaware Bay and will be increasing throughout April and May as they head for their breeding grounds to the north.

One last note, If you have any questions regarding this column, or anything else regarding migration, please don't hesitate to drop me an email at david@woodcreeper.com

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Spring Migration 2008

2008-03-01T19:13:00.005-05:00

I'm doing a bit of migrating myself, these days. We arrived in San Francisco last night after a nonstop flight from Newark, and although we exerted minimal physical effort during travel, we were famished upon landing. The stopover habitat here in the Bay Area is wonderful and comparatively easy, when considering Red Knots arriving in Delaware Bay searching for horseshoe crab eggs, or Neotropical songbirds finding enough insects and berries along the Gulf Coast. We stopped at a Tapas bar and filled up on several delicacies, washing it down with some fruity sangria. A few hours of sleep and we're all feeling ready for our next leg, tonight, which will take us halfway around the world to the north island of New Zealand. Again, we'll be whisked away with minimal effort of our own and (hopefully) make it to Auckland safe and sound, and ready to explore the wonders of these far-off islands of endemism.

In the meantime, though, spring migration is in the air over the Americas, and recent radar images indicate the wave of birds (still a trickle) have begun to arrive from the Caribbean via Florida and the Gulf Coast. Up in the Northeast, blackbird flocks have grown and become regular visitors to our New Jersey feeders, and bird song, despite the bitter cold temperatures of late, has steadily increased and become more diverse. American Woodcocks, which can be heard displaying in Florida as early as December, have made their way into the northeast and are now mainstays of the dusk landscape in our neck of the woods. They, to me, signify the real beginning of spring migration, while I would guess that those living along the coast would use a different measure; possibly large scoter flocks or lines of loons heading northward. We all have our measure, but whatever it is, Zugunruhe is clearly in the air.

For those of you new to Birdcapemay.org, or new to using weather to predict bird migration, Paul Lehman has written a wonderful primer located here, on this website. Take a little time and read through it and I'm sure you'll get a whole lot more out of the migration experience. I'll be posting a few times while away in New Zealand, but when I return (March 25) migration will be ramping up, and I'll use this space for weekly posts on migration conditions, birding predictions, and discussing weather phenomena as they relate to bird migration. I hope you'll all come back regularly so we can experience the wonders of migration together. If you're interested in how to use weather radar to predict bird migration, I will also be posting regularly to two other websites, www.woodcreeper.com (northeast US, especially New Jersey) and badbirdz2.wordpress.com, (the Southeast US, especially Florida).

Good birding!

David La Puma

stalled winter irruptives, but good Dovekies!

2008-01-18T08:18:00.000-05:00

The southward and eastward march of a good number of winter irruptives--Bohemian Waxwings, Pine Grosbeaks, redpolls, crossbills--seems to have stalled ever since the last notable push just a couple days or so before Christmas Day. At that time, Bohemians and a single Pine Grosbeak made it to northern New Jersey, as did a single likely Hoary Redpoll. But not much new since.

But don't get too depressed, yet! In many years the height of such southward movements do not peak until February (and even early March). Although in some years such irruptive flights do fizzle as the winter progresses, as seems to have happened this year with montane species out West.

There do seem to be a good number of Dovekies offshore this year, however. And several birds (most likely in poor shape) have been found at mainland inlets and jetties. Winter alcid numbers often don't peak until February and March.

--Paul Lehman

Late November Rarities/Weather

2007-11-29T06:46:00.000-05:00

In 2007, we seem to have had a good run of rarities between Cape May County and central New England beginning the weekend of November 17-18. In the Cape May region alone there's been the Lesser Nighthawk, Bullock's Oriole, up to 98 Cave Swallows, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, White-winged Dove, plus the Barnacle Goose, a late Least Flycatcher and Rose-breasted Grosbeak. Add to that, an Ash-throated Flycatcher and Cave Swallow at Brigantine NWR, more Cave Swallows along the state's northern coast, and Sandy Hook's assemblage of Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Flycatcher, W. Kingbird, and, perhaps rarest of all for late November, a Great Crested Flycatcher. On Long Island there's been 1-2 Ash-throats, perhaps 4 W. Kingbirds, Pink-footed and Barnacle Goose, several Cave Swallows, with additional Ash-throats in Queens and Staten Island. More Cave Swallows in Connecticut (and a continuing Common Ground-Dove), Rhode Island's first Bell's Vireo plus a few Cave Swallows, and Massachusetts has had Townsend's Solitaire, Ash-throated Fly, W. Kingbird, W. Grebe, several Cave Swallows, etc.

So, the peak period of the western passerines this year--particularly involving the largest numbers of Cave Swallows and Ash-throats--has occurred late in the month, about two weeks or so later than the usual peak-period for these species around mid-month. Chance?? A mild month?? Well, there were two good weather events in the latter half of the month that may have facilitated the run of birds: two warm low-pressure systems that tracked east and northeast through the area each followed by sharp cold fronts, one system just before the weekend of Nov 17-18 and the next one which brought us our mild Thanksgiving Day (and day before). And voila, following those two systems, we've had the best rarity influxes of the fall!