Birding Forecast - MidAtlantic

Birding forecast on hiatus... but don't fret!

2009-09-02T10:53:00.002-04:00

The birding forecast has been canceled for now, but you can find out what's going on over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on www.woodcreeper.com, where I'll be posting the nightly radar each morning at 6:40am.

Good Birding

David

Summer is here! (well, sort of)

2009-06-06T08:46:00.002-04:00

While at any given moment some birds somewhere are migrating, the spring passage of long-distance migrant land birds over the mid-Atlantic has most certainly tapered off. Most of these birds have arrived or are arriving at their breeding grounds across the US and Canada. Until next time, have a great summer!

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 6/1 - 6/5

2009-06-01T16:08:00.003-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Wow... I can't believe we're already in June! It seems like just yesterday when I was cursing the cold as I walked my dog and could only pick out the singing White-throated Sparrows over the howling wind. Since then the trees have leafed out, The World Series of Birding has come and gone, and the dawn chorus in the woods behind my house, so recently composed of migrant warblers, is now almost exclusively comprised of breeders. I say 'almost' because my buddy Ben knocked on my door this morning to tell me about a 'life bird' he saw while conducting his annual breeding bird surveys. The bird he saw? A Mourning Warbler! Now, for the last three days I've been in Austin, PA, conducting a Bioblitz at the Austin Dam property, and have seen more Mourning Warblers than I had in all the years leading up to this weekend (they breed pretty heavily in that part of PA). I came back last night, ecstatic, and couldn't wait to tell Ben about the great Mourning show I saw just five hours away from central NJ... well, before I could get a word out Ben had described to me a very similar encounter, only five minutes from my doorstep. Of course I was excited for Ben, but man did that take a bit of excitement out of my story!

So, migration has clearly slowed down with most migrants already having reached their breeding grounds, or very nearly so. It is for that reason this forecast will serve as the last 'regular' update until Fall. As I have in the past, I will occasionally use this space to post interesting tidbits of information regarding migration between now and September, so please come back and visit!

and now we take you back to your regularly scheduled forecast...

Monday Night

Another front will approach the mid-Atlantic from the west on Monday, which will increase southerly flow on Monday night and trigger migration across the region.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday night the front will extend across New Jersey, resulting in winds switching to westerly and then northwesterly by Tuesday night. This, coupled with precipitation, will minimize any migration into the region on Tuesday night.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday the front will back up and stall over the region, begin to fall apart a bit, and allow the southerly winds to build in again. Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday night which could cause some localized concentrations of migrants.

Thursday Night

On Thursday the remnant front will move east into the Atlantic, allowing high pressure to build in once again, turning winds northerly and reducing any possibility of nocturnal migration.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

It looks like Tuesday should be a nice day for birding. With a new crop of birds scheduled to arrive, and no precipitation expected until later in the day, hitting your favorite migrant trap would be a productive way to spend your morning.

Wednesday Morning

Again, precipitation is forecast for after 11am, so getting out early would be key on Wednesday. Little change is expected from Tuesday morning, so head for areas with high breeder diversity, or check out the tried and true spring migrant spots for birds leftover from yesterday.

Thursday Morning

We could see some localized concentrations on Thursday morning, as birds migrating on Wednesday night encounter thunderstorms en route. Check the radar at the top of this page during the night on Wednesday to see whether birds are flying into heavy precipitation, and whether they're continuing north or landing prematurely. If the latter is apparent, then head to for birding locations at the intersection of birds and thunderstorms, otherwise go for the tried and true spring migrant trap of your choice.

Friday Morning

Friday is looking beautiful in terms of weather. Since nothing is expected to move on Thursday night, you can base your decision on where to go on the reports from the previous day.

If you're on Twitter, you can receive my up-to-the-minute forecast updates, and as always, you can find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding, and see you in the Fall!

David

Tomorrow is June 1st! When will all of this migration madness end??

2009-05-31T19:00:00.002-04:00

Just a heads-up that I didn't forget about you. I've been away from any Internet connection and just returned to civilization minutes ago. During the next 24 hours I'll be posting the last forecast for the spring, so stay tuned!

Good Birding

David

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/25 - 5/29

2009-05-25T22:51:00.002-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Monday Night

Winds will start off easterly as a warm front slowly moves north into the mid-Atlantic on Monday night. A moderate level of migration is expected in the southern part of the region, just south of the warm front, while light migration is expected further north where the winds are more northeasterly.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the warm front will have backed up over the mid-Atlantic, increasing the chance of precipitation and turning winds ESE. Given the more southerly winds, especially at 3000 feet, the chance of migration is looking pretty good.

Wednesday Night

The next cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, turning winds southerly and increasing the chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday night. If thunderstorms hold off until after sunset, we could see heavy migration coupled with the chance of fallout conditions wherever late-night thunderstorms are most intense.

Thursday Night

The latest front will take awhile to cross the mid-Atlantic, which means another night of southerly flow on Thursday. This time, though, it's looking like winds will be southwesterly through early Friday morning when the cold front passes to our east and the winds turn northwest. This bodes well both for heavy migration and for stalling birds over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Well, if you don't like rain, Tuesday morning is looking like your best bet for birding during the work week. Not a whole lot of new arrivals are expected on Tuesday but as is typical of the season, there are lots of birds around anyway. With west winds on tap for Tuesday, interior sites will be the best bet. Garret Mountain might be good, but locations with higher breeding bird diversity should be better. A place I've been meaning to check out is Black River WMA, in Morris County, near Chester, NJ. This place is great for breeders, it's inland, and also attracts many migrants. Bill Boyle has a section in his book A Guide to Bird Finding in New Jersey, and the section on Black River just happens to be available for free on Google Books. Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/qmnl53 Of course, if you don't have that book, and you go birding more than once a year in New Jersey, you ought to buy a copy. My copy has lost the cover and most of the binding, is stained throughout with coffee and dead mosquitoes, and covered in scribbled field notes. Along with my New Jersey road atlas, this is my most important asset when birding in the Garden State.

Wednesday Morning

Looks like rain on Wednesday, but who said birding should be a dry event? Expect a new influx of migrants to arrive on Wednesday morning, and with winds out of the southwest we should see the highest densities at inland migrant traps. Garret Mountain would be a good bet, as would any of the spring hotspots on either side of the Delaware River.

Thursday Morning

Heavy migration into and out of the mid-Atlantic is expected for Thursday morning. Keep an eye on the weather to see if heavy thunderstorms have an effect on the migrants en route, because if they do, we could experience some localized fallout conditions. Right now it's too soon to predict, so make sure to follow along on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) where I'll be posting live updates during the night.

Friday Morning

Thursday night will be the last sizable flight before the northwest winds on Friday morning shut things down for awhile. The good news? Friday morning will see plenty of new birds and the return of clear skies and nice weather. Right now the forecast is for winds to be light, which would really make finding birds that much easier. Since birds will be arriving on WSW winds, expect coastal migrant traps to be best on Friday. Sandy Hook is an obvious choice for New Jersey, and Cape May can be great as well.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/21 - 5/25

2009-05-21T21:36:00.000-04:00

Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday Nights

Right now the mid-Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure system, bounded to the south by a low over Florida and associated front creating strong ENE flow across the southeastern US. This front has effectively become a barrier to any birds in the southeast that might want to migrate north. Over the mid-Atlantic, though, the high pressure system has set up a light to moderate south/southwesterly flow, which will trigger several nights of migration from the Carolinas and Virginia all the way up into the northeastern US. Clear skies are on tap until the end of the weekend, and even then, we're not expecting much. Therefore migration will be heavy and well dispersed across the landscape.

Birding Forecast

Friday, Saturday, Sunday & Monday Morning

Right now the birding forecast is looking pretty predictable... of course, all of this can change in a couple of days. Winds are forecast to be light to moderate out of the south/southwest, and coupled with clear skies, we should see some widespread migration across the mid-Atlantic throughout the weekend. Because no strong crosswinds nor heavy precipitation are forecast, you can expect the best birding conditions to be found in established spring migrant traps such as Higbee's Beach, Cape May (NJ; best on WSW winds), Belleplain State Forest, Garret Mountain, Sandy Hook (best on WSW winds) and Central Park (NY).

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/17 - 5/21

2009-05-17T17:58:00.001-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

The high pressure system that built in behind Saturday night's front will continue to blow northwest winds over the mid-Atlantic. No migration is expected.

Monday Night

High pressure will begin to weaken as the mid-Atlantic gets squeezed between a cold front to the west, and a strong area of low pressure over Florida. Some models show winds actually turning south on Monday night, while others show a persistent, but light, northwest. For now we're only expecting a light migration on variable winds.

Tuesday Night

By Tuesday the front to our west will move close enough to set up more southerly flow, and therefore trigger moderate to heavy migration.

Wednesday Night

High pressure will continue to dominate on Wednesday night, with light southwest winds triggering another night of migration.

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

The latest reports show good movement of Catharus thrushes and Blackpoll warblers, both of which are "later" spring migrants, and a sign that we're entering the latter part of the season. With little moving on Sunday night, a good rule of thumb is to head where good birding conditions have been recently reported.

Tuesday- Thursday Morning

Conditions after Monday should be relatively consistent, with light and variable winds dominating, and no precipitation on tap for most of the region. Given how light the winds are forecast, birds will tend to be widespread across the region. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the best results this coming week.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/12 - 5/16

2009-05-12T21:25:00.008-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

Winds will be out of the northwest as high pressure continues over the mid-Atlantic, but still light enough to allow these migration-ready birds to head north into and out of the region.

Wednesday Night

A strong cold front is approaching from the west, and on Wednesday the winds will begin to turn southeasterly in anticipation. Expect widespread migration from Virginia north to Maine.

Thursday Night

The front arrives on Thursday, setting up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Precipitation is forecast for early Friday morning so we could see some concentration in northern NJ and southern NY as birds hit the front. Overall expect heavy migration across the entire region on Thursday night.

Friday Night

Updated 5/15/09: The precipitation has been removed from the forecast as the front that crossed the region last night has dissipated today. Expect moderate to heavy levels of migration tonight on southeast winds and clear skies.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Moderate migration into and out of the region will result in a 'thinning out' of the migrant density that we've been experiencing since the weekend. Still, there will be plenty of birds around and the spring migrant traps will provide the best birding conditions after a night of widespread migration.

Thursday Morning

Southeast winds and clear skies mean widespread migration across the region. Tried and true spring migrant traps will be best on Thursday with coastal locations being a good choice given the easterly component to the wind.

Friday Morning

Heavy migration on south winds coupled with a 70% chance of precipitation bodes well for birding on Friday. Expect concentrations to be highest wherever the storms build after midnight and intercept migrating birds.

Update 5/14/09:Thanks to Don Freiday for the email regarding the wind forecast for tonight. As Don noted, winds over Patterson, NJ are forecast to turn NW between 3 and 5 AM Friday morning. This switch in winds will be accompanied by some precipitation, which together will likely lead to fallout conditions. If this scenario plays out, we could see a fallout at Garret Mountain, as well as other areas located along the frontal boundary. Also, with strong west winds building in late tonight, expect coastal hotspots to be hopping tomorrow. The front will not make its way across the entire region, instead it will retreat and dissipate on Friday, so don't worry about precipitation along the coast tomorrow. So, Cape May, Island Beach SP, Sandy Hook (especially), and locations along the frontal boundary with Garret being a likely candidate, will all be good places to be tomorrow morning.

Use the radar at the top of this page to see how and when they plays out, or follow me on Twitter (BCMorgBFMA) for updates on Thursday night.

Saturday Morning

Clear skies, southwest winds aloft and southeast winds at the surface means migrants will be widespread by Saturday morning. Hit the tried and true migration hotspots on Saturday morning, which should be easy for everyone down in Cape May for the Spring Weekend. All of Cape May will be good territory to cover, but Belleplain will provide a great mix of both migrants and breeders. Additionally, its proximity to the Delaware Bay shore means you can experience many of the great habitats the region has to offer all with minimium travel time.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Forecast Coming Soon!

2009-05-12T11:05:00.003-04:00

Oops! we're still recovering from the World Series of Birding and somehow allowed the forecast to go 'stale'. Check back later today for an update and outlook for the rest of the week.

Good Birding

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/6 - 5/10

2009-05-06T15:48:00.004-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

World Series of Birding Migration Weather Forecast

How's everyone doing on this soggy scout week? Well, the bright side is that the worst of the precipitation is over, and you'll only have to deal with intermittent precipitation as a stationary front backs over us on Wednesday night, and then a series of lows and cold fronts cross the region through the weekend. Each of these events, though, promises to bring more migrants into the mid-Atlantic and increases the likelihood of lots of migrants being around on Saturday.

Wednesday Night

Wednesday night's stationary front will bring some threat of thunderstorms and widespread precipitation up from the Delmarva Peninsula. Winds will be light out of the south, turning southeast by midnight. Heavy migration is expected for the mid-Atlantic and the addition of precipitation may cause migrants to concentrate locally by morning. See the birding forecast below for details.

Thursday Night

The next round of showers will make their way eastward on Thursday night as a weak low pressure system moves toward the coast. Southwest winds will help motivate the eager migrant and we should expect a moderate to heavy push of birds into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday night. West winds into the early hours on Friday will increase the chance of migrants piling up along the coast by morning.

Friday Night

Things clear up during the day on Friday, but a quick moving front will bring a chance of wetness to the region overnight. South winds early on Friday night will again trigger migration into the mid-Atlantic, while by daybreak winds will turn southeasterly favoring inland migrant traps for the World Series of Birding.

Saturday Night

The next cold front is scheduled to move into the region on Saturday, setting up southeasterly flow in advance of the front on Saturday night. This should allow another flight into and out of the region before high pressure builds in on Sunday.

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

Migrants + thunderstorms = eager birders.

Right now the models are uncertain as to the amount or intensity of the expected precipitation, but anytime there's a good chance for heavy migration and thunderstorms, you should keep an eye on the radar. Since the precipitation is making its way from the south, we will likely see two migration events take place tonight: the first to the north, moving unimpeded ahead of the front, and the second from the south, migrating into the front. This will likely result in a net loss of migrants in the north (as they move on) and a concentration of migrants in the south (as they hit inclement weather). Therefore, the best birding conditions on Thursday morning will be just south of, or within the, frontal boundary. That said, you'll be best to check the radar tonight and see how this plays out... or follow along on Twitter where I'll be posting regular updates throughout the night (hint: you can read my latest Twitter posts by using the links under the map on this page).

Friday Morning

Despite the precipitation on tap for Thursday evening, it's not looking very intense or organized so far. The one factor that looks to make things interesting, though, is the west wind. With the wind turning more westerly on Friday morning migrants will be pushed toward the coast increasing densities at all coastal migrant traps including Sandy Hook, Island Beach State Park, and Brigantine NWR.

Saturday Morning

It's GAME TIME! So if the World Series is the Fall Classic, is the WSOB the Spring Classic? I think it sounds good... I'm gonna run with it.

Southeasterly flow on Friday night will bring new migrants into the mid-Atlantic for Saturday. While the southeast winds will favor inland migrant traps, most locations should see new birds on Saturday morning regardless. Right now it doesn't look like the precipitation will have an appreciable effect on causing birds to land prematurely, so the tried and true migrant traps will be your best bet. Light southeast winds are forecast during the day on Saturday which would bode well for a decent raptor flight.

Sunday Morning

Okay, I've moved out of the bedroom to write this last part. Yeah, if you've got enough cojones to go birding on Mother's Day (or you happen to be a mother, and therefore can dictate whatever happens on Mother's Day), then you'll probably be in good shape for some nice migrant activity. Southeast winds on Saturday night will bring the next push of migrants into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Those of you down in Cape May for the WSOB banquet might hit the Delaware Bay Shore for some new arrivals, while most inland migrant traps across the region will see some good birding conditions as well. Me? Um, I'll be doing some early morning local patch birding (read: "walking the dog") and then it's flowers and pancakes, and occasionally birding by ear from the kitchen window.

Good luck on a safe and fun World Series of Birding!

David La Puma (member of the Rutgers Scarlet Knight-herons)

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 5/2 - 5/6

2009-05-02T09:59:00.002-04:00

Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Saturday Night

A strong cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with minimal fanfare in terms of precipitation. Winds will turn northwesterly and then westerly as high pressure builds in behind it. Expect little migration on Saturaday night for most of the region, given the sub-optimal winds. The exception to this might be the southern end of the region (VA) where the configuration of the front and the southwest winds associated with it could trigger a sizable movement.

Sunday Night

The cold front which passed on Saturday will stall over the Delmarva on Sunday, increasing the chance of precipitation for the region. Despite the precipitation, winds will turn SSE on Sunday afternoon and likely trigger the next push into and out of the region.

Monday Night

By Monday the latest front will have stalled further south of the Delmarva Peninsula, acting as a barrier to migrants making their way from points south. Winds are forecast to turn northerly which should preclude any birds from migrating.

Tuesday Night

On Tuesday the stalled front will dip further south, freeing the mid-Atlantic from the heavy storm activity, but not from the northeasterly winds. Again, this will preclude any migration for Tuesday night as birds wait for some better conditions.

Birding Forecast

Sunday Morning

With little expected to move over most of the region, conditions should remain consistent from previous days (which have been excellent). As birds will be moving into more optimal foraging habitat, head for areas where breeding bird diversity tends to be high, such as Belleplain SF and Black River Wildlife Management Area in New Jersey (click here for a map), or coastal shorebirds locales such as Bombay Hook NWR (DE), Brigantine NWR (NJ), and along the Delaware Bay Shore.

Monday Morning

Some birds will move into and out of the region on Sunday night, as winds will be blowing from the southeast. Spring migrant traps will be the best bet on Monday, with the wind favoring those located inland. Garret Mountain is an obvious choice, but locations along the Delaware river should also be productive on Monday.

Tuesday & Wednesday Morning

With no migration expected on Monday and Tuesday nights, conditions will remain stable from Monday morning. Again, this is a good time to hit some of the diverse breeding grounds across the region as many species have already established territories and more show up each day.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/28 - 5/2

2009-04-28T12:56:00.003-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"All I know she sang a little while and then flew on"
-Robert Hunter

Tuesday Night

High pressure continues to dominate the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it warm southerly flow and more birds than you can shake a stick at (okay, I admit, I've never tried to find out how many birds I could shake a stick at, and if I caught you shaking a stick at birds, I might just ask you to stop... or at least look at you funny). Winds will continue out of the south tonight until the cold front crosses our area after midnight, at which point winds will turn northwesterly and the chance of precipitation will increase. Expect a moderate flight tonight, owing mostly to the lack of migration-ready birds across the region, a result of four nights of continuous flights!

Wednesday Night

The cold front will cross our region on Wedensday morning, and high pressure will build in behind it once again. Winds will turn southeasterly on Wednesday night, which will likely trigger moderate to heavy migration. Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: The warm front to our south, initially expected to prevent birds from moving north into the mid-Atlantic, is going to take a bit longer to arrive. Therefore I have changed the forecast to reflect the increased influx of new birds.

Thursday Night

On Thursday the warm front will make its way north into the mid-Atlantic, bringing with it plenty of rain and diminishing winds. Depending on the amount of precipitation, it's possible that we could see a light push into and out of the region, but the probability is looking low.

Friday Night

On Friday night the cold front will have pushed far enough to the east to set up a strong southerly wind gradient over the mid-Atlantic. Expect a big flight on Friday night. Some models show precipitation arriving in northern NJ on Saturday morning, which could limit the amount of northbound traffic and cause some pileups (of birds, not cars) along the frontal boundary. Right now it's too hard to predict, but otherwise the models show clear skies along the east coast for Friday night.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Many birds have begun to set up territories in their breeding grounds through the mid-Atlantic, and so most diverse habitats have a nice selection of birds actively singing and courting regardless of migration. With precipitation arriving around midnight, typically the peak of nocturnal migration, it's worth checking to see how the migration 'cloud' reacts to the presence of rain and/or change in wind direction. Use the live radar map at the top of this page to check it out as it happens. Regardless, the change in winds should act to hold some birds in the mid-Atlantic, and spring hotspots are always a good choice in these situations. The top of Garret Mountain at first light can be a wonderful place to try out your skills with flight calls as birds redirect up the mountain after seeing the likes of West Patterson (great for Peruvian food, not so good for bird habitat). Winds will be northerly throughout the day, so don't expect much in terms of a raptor flight.

Thursday Morning

Updated 4/29 @ 1:55pm: It looks like we'll see another influx and exodus of birds in and out of the mid-Atlantic for Thursday morning. Rain isn't expected until later in the day, so birds will be widespread. Hit the tried-and-true spring hotspots for the highest diversity and abundance.

Friday Morning

Again, not much expected to move on Thursday night, so expect little change on Friday morning.

Saturday Morning

Alright, after two lackluster nights of little-to-no migration, Friday night should open the door to some new arrivals for Saturday morning. Again, check to see whether the rain and wind stopped migrants en route by using the radar at the top of this page. Right now the precipitation forecast is for light rain, although the wind shift may prove to be a more important factor. With most of the east coast under clear skies, hit the tried-and-true spring migration hotspots on Saturday morning.

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/24 - 4/28

2009-04-24T13:38:00.003-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"Get ready to ruuuuummmmmmbbbbbllllleeeeee"

The biggest flights of the spring are lining up this weekend, and with the climbing temperatures we should have some excellent birding conditions across the mid-Atlantic. With a strong cold front extending from Canada down the Ohio Valley, southwesterly winds are forecast to dominate the region through Tuesday. While the result will likely favor the birds over the birder, spring migrant traps will be hopping with new diversity and greater abundance than they have thus far.

Friday Night

These are the nights that we dream about as the winter comes to a close. If you checked the radar last night, you saw widespread migration from the Gulf Coast up into the Great Lakes region, and from Florida up into northern Virginia. The only place relatively absent of migration was the northern mid-Atlantic and the northeast, owing to the persistence of northwesterly winds. Well, these pesky winds have moved out of the region and the southerly flow has begun. Expect migration over the mid-Atlantic to be heavy and widespread on Friday night.

Saturday Night

And the beat goes on... Saturday night will see moderate southwesterly winds, as the low pressure and associated cold front remain to our west. The migration superhighway continues to bring new birds to the mid-Atlantic, while allowing those who are migration-ready to head further north.

Sunday Night

As the low pressure moves further east, and the high pressure dominating our region heads south, we should see winds turning more westerly, and possibly a bit northwest. For now most models predict west winds, and so I'm thinking migration will prevail again on Sunday night.

Monday Night

Here we go again! By Monday it looks like the low stalls again to our west and high pressure kicks back in for the east coast, driving those winds back out of the southwest. Expect another night of heavy migration over the mid-Atlantic.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

As I said, this series of nights will favor the bird over the birder. Clear skies and a strong tailwind ensure that birds can maximize their nocturnal flight towards the breeding ground. The good news for birders? The sheer volume of birds moving on Friday night will guarantee a good birding day at any spring migrant trap on Saturday morning. With a little west in the wind, coastal hotspots will be a good bet, but all spots should hold new birds regardless. These next three days should be great for diurnal raptor migration, so be sure to keep an eye to the sky during the day.

Sunday Morning

More migration = more birds. As our winter friends clear out, our migrant breeders and seasonal visitors will be arriving in good numbers. Again, stick to the traditional spring migrant traps for the greatest diversity and density.

Monday Morning

West winds on Sunday night should push migrants toward the coast. Cape May, Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook are all good bets in NJ, and are the best places for a raptor flight on Monday.

Tuesday Morning

More unabated migration on Monday night, coupled with southerly winds, means birds will be well dispersed across the landscape on Tuesday. Belleplain, Garret Mountain, the Great Swamp, the Meadowlands; these are all good places within NJ to check out on Tuesday. Again, a good raptor flight is expected for Tuesday as well.

Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/20 - 4/24 (UPDATED)

2009-04-20T17:41:00.006-04:00

Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

This past weekend made clear that spring migration has transitioned into high gear. Winds at high altitudes (3000+ feet), where migrating landbirds tend to fly, were strong and northerly; not ideal for migration. On the surface, though, we had several nights of either southerly, or southwesterly winds, which allowed for birds to fly low and take advantage of a tailwind. On any given night in March I would not have expected to see birds take off under such conditions, but no that we're midway through April, with hormones a-raging, birds are making their bid for the breeding grounds. It's every bird for themselves!

Over the weekend we saw a whole suite of Neotropical migrants show up in Southern New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and parts of New York. The more migratory ruby-crowned kinglets have begun to outnumber their golden-crowned counterparts; In South Jersey, northern waterthrushes, having returned to the breeding grounds over the last two weeks, are now being joined by ovenbirds, and prothonotary warblers. Some early migrants such as black-and-white warbler, blue-headed vireo, warbling vireo, black-throated green warbler, and hooded warbler have also made appearances across the mid-Atlantic. Judging by the weather forecast, we should be seeing more of these and other Neotropical migrants in the coming week.

Monday Night

Winds at all altitudes will have a southeasterly component on Monday night, increasing the chance of migration into the mid-Atlantic, though severe thunderstorms across PA and NJ will be prevent much of anything from moving in or out. Heavy migration from Virginia into the Delmarva and as far north as Cape May NJ will be in effect.

Tuesday Night

The forecast is again favorable for widespread migration on Tuesday night, as the front pushes toward the east coast. Southwesterly flow and clear(er) skies should trigger a big flight into and out-of the region, with the possibility of some disruptions due to isolated but strong thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

By Wednesday night the front and most of the thunderstorm activity will have moved out, and the new forecast shows winds turning northwesterly as high pressure builds over the region. Update Wed. @ 9:04pm: Winds have not turned entirely NW, and so there appears a chance for some migration over the region.

Thursday Night

Northwest winds continue through Thursday night, and therefore keep birds stationary until Friday night when the next front approaches.

Birding Forecast

Tuesday Morning

Thunderstorm activity may cause some localized concentrations on Tuesday morning, limited primarily to the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey. Belleplain, already teaming with newly arrived breeders, will be a good place to find diversity, as will the Cape May peninsula. Keep an eye to the sky on Tuesday, as the strong southerly winds should trigger a raptor flight during the daylight hours.

Wednesday Morning

Quite the contrary to Tuesday, surface winds on Wednesday will be blowing out of the southwest. This should bring more birds to the coast for Wednesday morning, but migration will be widespread enough to impact most locations. Again, Wednesday should be another decent day for raptors, although cooler temps and cloud cover will probably limit thermal activity.

Thursday Morning

Updated Wed. @ 9:04pm: Some new migrants should be present on Thursday morning, as winds on Wednesday night remain light and southwesterly. Birds will be dispersed across the landscape as no strong winds or precipitation are forecast to influence the migration trajectory. Tried and true spring hotspots will be the best bet. Get out there and see some birds!

Friday Morning

Expect little to no change from Thursday given the lack of migration potential on Thursday night.

Now you can follow me on Twitter, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/18 - 4/19

2009-04-18T22:54:00.003-04:00

Birds are on the way tonight as winds turned westerly across the mid-Atlantic. Spring migration hotspots across the region will see new birds on Sunday morning with higher densities along the east coast given the westerly winds. Neotropical migrants have begun to turn up in Southern New Jersey, so this next wave promises to bring added diversity to the region. Make sure to bring some rain gear, though, as wetter weather will move in by midday tomorrow.

Good Birding!

David

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/15 - 4/19 (UPDATED)

2009-04-15T14:38:00.007-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

"One [front] gone and another to go, my old buddy you're moving much too slow"

A series of lows are forecast for the mid-Atlantic between mid-week and the end of the weekend, unfortunately, though, it looks as if the south winds necessary for a big flight will be absent until after the weekend.

Thursday Night Updated

While winds aloft are strong from the northeast, surface winds on Thursday night are light and southerly. This, in turn, has triggered some migration over the mid-Atlantic. Whether this will continue on Friday night remains to be seen, as winds are forecast to turn W at the surface and remain NW aloft.

Wednesday - Saturday Night

Low pressure will move from over our heads (where it is soaking us), offshore to our east, as high pressure builds in behind it with drier air from the northwest. The key show-stopper here is the northwest wind. Expect no significant migration events during this time period. Looking ahead, there is another low pressure system forecast to reach our area on Sunday or Monday, which will bring with it the first southerly winds and undoubtedly a big influx of birds... stay tuned!

Birding Forecast

Friday Morning Updated

Since the winds are blowing out of the southeast on Thursday night, expect inland migrant traps to experience the greatest influx of new birds on Friday. Garret Mountain as well as hotspots along both sides of the Delaware River, look promising for tomorrow, and the weather will be beautiful for getting out there and seeing what shows up.

Thursday - Sunday Morning

The birding conditions will remain stable for the next few days, as no birds are expected to leave or arrive given the weather forecast. As far as comfort is concerned, the dreary weather will clear out of here by late tonight, making way for some gorgeously sunny days in the 60's and maybe even 70's on Friday and Saturday. This is an excellent time to brush up on your birding-by-ear skills. While the woods are full of more common species, getting in there pre-dawn can be a wonderful experience and allow you to study bird song in all of its variation. Besides, by this time next week we'll have several more species joining the woodland ensemble!

You can follow me on Twitter, using the link at the top of this page, and find out what's being seen today in Cape May by checking out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/10 - 4/14 (UPDATED)

2009-04-10T15:05:00.006-04:00

Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM	Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Birds are here, and more are on the way tonight, even before the weekend kicks into full swing. Things will then taper off quickly after the next front passes and it'll be Tuesday night before another big push into the mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night

Southwesterly flow began on Thursday night, but as I was visiting some crazy family members in Long Island, I had no opportunity to update the forecast. For that I apologize. Friday night should be the bigger show of the two nights though, as the next cold front presses eastward and the winds along the front turn due-south. Expect heavy migration into the mid-Atlantic region with heavy precipitation moving in after 2am. This should limit the amount of bird traffic to our north and possibly ground some migrants en route.

Saturday, Sunday & Monday Nights

The next cold front will cross the mid-Atlantic on Saturday morning, and northwest winds will build in behind it. This will effectively shut down migration over the region until the next front approaches on Tuesday. By Monday night, though, southerly flow will return to the Southeastern US and the southernmost parts of the mid-Atlantic. Therefore I have updated the forecast flag to yellow, indicating some migration activity into the region. The real fun will happen on Tuesday night, but that will have to wait until the next forecast.

Birding Forecast

Saturday Morning

Birds is the word for Saturday morning... birds, and rain, that is. Morning showers should help concentrate migrants in the mid-Atlantic region. It's always a good idea to check the radar and see the configuration of the cold front relative to the 'migration cloud'. You can do this right here on this website using the interactive map at the top of the page. Another way to check is, assuming migrants are widespread across the region (which they should be), check the weather to see at which locations the rain began after midnight. Migration peaks around midnight, so these locations should have the highest concentrations of birds due to premature grounding.

Don't pass up birding on Saturday just because of the weather as most models show the precipitation moving out by late morning. The Delaware Bay shore (NJ) and Garret Mountain (NJ) are two very good destinations for Saturday morning.

Sunday & Monday Morning

Once the cold front passes on Saturday the mid-Atlantic will experience cool dry air coming in from the northwest. Nice weather and new arrivals means good birding conditions as migrants will stick around through Tuesday given the northerly winds.

Tuesday Morning

With southerly flow expected to increase over the Southeastern US, expect new birds in the southernmost parts of the region, such as Virginia and possibly even southern Delaware for Tuesday morning.

For rapid migration alerts you can follow me on Twitter (link at the top of this page), and for finding out what's being seen today in Cape May you can check the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 4/5 - 4/9

2009-04-05T22:19:00.007-04:00

Sun.PM	Mon.AM	Mon.PM	Tue.AM	Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Sunday Night

As low pressure moves into the northeast on Sunday night, southerly flow will dominate the mid-Atlantic. This will trigger widespread migration into and over the region.

Monday Night

The strong low pressure system is expected to pass over the region on Monday, causing the winds to turn northwest and shut down migration, over land, that is. Something interesting will be happening offshore, as a strong southerly flow will form over the entire east coast, from Florida to Maine.

Tuesday - Wednesday Night

West winds will build in behind the front on Tuesday night and continue through Thursday. Expect little to no migration, although any birds on the move will likely be pushed towards the coast

Birding Forecast

Monday Morning

Migration into the region will be both heavy and widespread. Palm Warblers and Blue-gray Gnatcatchers have already begun popping up over the last two days, and Neotropical migrants have been arriving along the Gulf Coast and Florida for a few weeks now, so spring migration is well underway! Spring hotspots will be the best bet for Monday morning, with the Delaware Bay shore a good pick for southern NJ, and Garret Mountain an exellent choice for central NJ.

Tuesday Morning

Expect little to change from Monday morning, except maybe on the coast. The strong southerly winds offshore should act as a conveyor belt of pelagic migrants. Scoters, Gannets, and the like should be moving in high numbers, and with the belt reaching as far south as Florida, we could get some more southerly species off of the mid-Atlantic. Get your scopes and head to the coast!

Wednesday- Thursday Morning

With the west winds dominating the region, and the strong northerly flow having moved even farther offshore, expect little in the way of new birds.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/31 - 4/4

2009-03-31T22:15:00.003-04:00

Tue.PM	Wed.AM	Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night

Migration traffic is heavy overhead as I type this. Winds are blowing about 15kts at 3500 feet elevation, suggesting that birds will be pushed inland as they land in the morning.

Wednesday Night

South winds will continue on Wednesday night, as the next cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. Precipitation is also expected, and could be heavy at times. This may limit the number of migrants taking flight on Wednesday, but if a substantial number do take off we could see localized concentrations on Thursday morning.

Thursday Night

Winds will turn variable on Thursday night as the low moves north into Canada, and the next one approaches from the southwest. With rain and uncooperative winds in the forecast, expect little in terms of migration.

Friday Night

It all begins again on Friday night, when the next low approaches from the south setting up southerly flow over the mid-Atlantic. There is a chance of precipitation on Friday night, but it's looking minimal at best. Expect a good flight under these conditions.

Birding Forecast

Wednesday Morning

We should see some new birds on the ground Wednesday morning, with the southeast winds favoring inland migrant traps. Belleplain, the Great Swamp, and Garret Mountain should be good choices for Wednesday morning, and make sure to keep an eye to the sky for migrating raptors.

Thursday Morning

The conditions for Thursday will depend on the amount and strength of precipitation on Wednesday night. If birds do take off, the strong southerly winds should disperse them more evenly across the entire mid-Atlantic than on Wednesday morning. If birds take of, but are met with heavy precipitation during flight, these zones of interception will be key places to visit and see what has grounded. Again, with southerly flow continuing throughout the day, keep an eye up for migrating raptors as well.

Friday Morning

No migration is expected between Thursday and Friday, so conditions should remain consistent from Thursday morning.

Saturday Morning

The next push on Friday night should produce new birds on Saturday morning. Right now it looks as if the winds will be out of the southwest which will increase the number of birds across the entire region while favoring coastal migration hotspots.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/25 - 3/29

2009-03-25T14:56:00.002-04:00

Wed.PM	Thu.AM	Thu.PM	Fri.AM	Fri.PM	Sat.AM	Sat.PM	Sun.AM

Migration Weather Forecast

Spring migration has been underway now for about about a month, and the early signs of Neotropical arrivals have begun to make landfall along the Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula. It'll be a few weeks before we see these birds in any appreciable numbers, but it's fun to think about in the meantime. While the superhighway between the Yucatan and Gulf states has been very active over the last week, we're finally getting some conducive weather to bringing birds into (and beyond) the mid-Atlantic. High pressure which had been dominating the region, will move east over the Atlantic on Wednesday and make way for the next cold front arriving on Thursday. This will bring southerly flow on both Wednesday and Thursday nights, and set us up for an influx of new birds from the south. Precipitation will begin late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday, eventually tapering off by Friday morning when high pressure builds back in behind the front. Before you can say "hey, where did the south winds go?", they'll be back, as a second low-pressure system arrives on Saturday.

Wednesday Night

Light southerly winds are forecast across the southeast and mid-Atlantic US on Wednesday evening, opening up the region for a moderate pulse of early migrants. Coastal states will be under lighter winds with an easterly component, whereas states to the west (such as western Pennsylvania) will experience stronger southerly flow and therefore more migrant traffic.

Thursday Night

As far as winds are concerned, by Thursday night the conditions should be optimal across the entire mid-Atlantic region (steady southerlies). The real determining factor will be the distribution and intensity of precipitation. The current forecast shows precipitation to be widespread but light across the mid-Atlantic, therefore setting the stage for favorable migration conditions.

Friday Night

By Friday night the cold front will have passed to our east and north winds will have built in behind it. Expect migration conditions to deteriorate until the next cold front approaches on Saturday.

Saturday Night

Double whammy! So far it looks like the next low pressure system will make it to the region on Saturday, with southerly winds on tap for Saturday night... get ready for another flight!

Birding Forecast

Thursday Morning

We should see some new birds on the ground Thursday morning, especially within the western mid-Atlantic region. With southerly flow forecast throughout the day, keep your eye to the sky for diurnal raptors heading north.

Friday Morning

If everything pans out as predicted, we should see another arrival of new birds on Friday morning (and may notices some conspicuous absences of winter regulars from your local haunts). With the clearing skies on Friday and highs in the 60's, the birding conditions will be beautiful. This is a good time to familiarize yourself with the spring hotspots in your area, and who knows, you might just spot an early arrival fresh off the migration superhighway!

Saturday Morning

With no migration forecast for the previous night, things ought to be similar to Friday.

Sunday Morning

After another night of migration, we should see some new birds on Sunday morning. Judging by the southeasterly component to the winds, inland sites should be best (this is the typical spring trend as well). Southerly flow will persist on Sunday making it another good day for hawk-watching.

As always, to find more information on what's being seen TODAY in Cape May, check out the View From the Cape, on BirdCapeMay.org

You can also get rapid migration alerts using Twitter, by following my feed here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA

Good Birding,

David La Puma

Mid-Atlantic Migration Forecast: 3/21 - 3/23

2009-03-21T15:44:00.002-04:00

High pressure is giving way to a strong low over Canada, which will result in light south winds over the mid-Atlantic tonight. That should trigger some migration over the region, but will be limited since high pressure still dominates to our south (and so the south winds are very localized). North winds will return on Sunday and Monday, limiting any migration into the early part of the week. It's a beautiful time to be in the field, and many of the local breeders are pairing up and defending territories... it's beginning to feel a lot like spring!

On the topic of migration, the mid-Atlantic forecast is now also on Twitter. I'll be posting migration 'alerts' whenever the radar is showing a big flight, or it looks like conditions will favor a fallout, so join me on Twitter here: http://twitter.com/BCMorgBFMA.

Good Birding,

David

South winds on tap for the next couple of nights (3/17-3/19)

2009-03-17T08:57:00.003-04:00

As the latest low pressure system has moved off shore, high pressure will build in across the mid-Atlantic bringing southwest winds to the region today through Thursday morning. Moderate levels of migration are expected over the next two nights as some of our winter visitors clear out and make way for some of our migratory breeders. Be on the lookout for arriving Ospreys, as well as Eastern Phoebe, Pine Warbler, and the beautiful song of the Winter Wren.

Good Birding

David

Birds on the way (3/11)

2009-03-11T12:11:00.003-04:00

There's a cold front making its way across the mid-Atlantic today, and before it crosses the region it will bring southwesterly flow to the eastern seaboard. The radar indicated a moderate movement of birds across the Southeast last night, which would also suggest a push of birds headed our way this evening. Since it's still early, don't expect too much in terms of new diversity, but we should see a good influx of birds that had wintered just to our south.

By tomorrow (Thursday) the cold front will have passed and winds will turn northwesterly, precluding any major movements over the area.

Good Birding!

David

Spring Migration 2009

2009-03-07T22:35:00.002-05:00

Spring is in the air.

Just today while swinging in my hammock in Central New Jersey, a moth landed on my arm just long enough for me to say "huh... a moth... I haven't seen one of those in awhile". Just then I heard some Brown-headed Cowbirds vocalizing (a sound I both loathe, because of their parasitic nature, and love, because it signals the end of winter), and looked up to find three males posturing at the top of a sycamore tree... yup, spring is in the air.

Tonight, just before moving my clocks forward and turning in, I checked the local radar to see what was going on overhead. With the winds light and southwesterly, I wasn't surprised to see a moderate movement of birds over the mid-Atlantic. I'd suspect that the majority of these are robins, white-throated sparrows, juncos, etc., but just the fact that there are enough birds entering the atmosphere to show up on the radar gets me all excited.

So I guess this post will mark the beginning of the spring migration forecasts on Birdcapemay.org. Since it's still early, I'll be posting periodically only when conditions are looking favorable. As we get going into April, though, I'll begin to post the typical 5-day forecasts, and increase frequency when things really get interesting. Of course, you can always come here and check the live radar using the interactive map at the top of this page.

In the meantime, you can see how Neotropical migration is ramping up down south by following my friends Angel and Mariel as they post the nightly radar from South Florida on http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com.

Good Birding!

David La Puma

Chasing the Ghost Owl

2008-12-19T21:01:00.007-05:00

For me, the thought of winter owls usually comes just after the big flights of southbound songbirds have thinned out, the temperature dips into the 30's, and the large flocks of White-throated Sparrows and Dark-eyed Juncos find my feeders once again. Owls are mysterious enough without trying to understand their migration. Virtually silent on the wing, stone-cold still when perched, and active mostly during the hours when our human eyes are worthless; Owls are enigmatic.

For a Floridian transplanted into New Jersey, the one owl that has captivated me the most before ever laying eyes on it was definitely the Snowy Owl. Snowies are circumpolar in their distribution; breeding on the windswept open tundra where "high ground" is usually limited to rocky outcroppings only a few meters high. By late fall the owls begin their southbound migration out of the tundra and begin arriving on wintering grounds in November, continuing through January, and sometimes remaining into late spring (although most leave by early March). If the food supply is sufficient, many snowies will set up territories for the entire winter, making them a great bird to "chase" once one has been located.

Lucky for us, New Jersey and New York are within the annual wintering range of this majestic species. Snowy Owls winter in habitat structurally similar to their tundra breeding grounds. They are often found in open landscapes such as coastal dunes and agricultural areas, as well as human-altered landscapes such as airport fields. While many birds are found in expansive natural areas, like the Brigantine and Holgate units of the Forsythe NWR, they're also found quite regularly in more urbanized coastal areas such as the Shark River estuary in Belmar. In the latter cases it's not uncommon to find the owl perched atop a streetlight, or water tower. So, although they spend most of their time in low-stature habitat, don't forget to scan those distant perches up high as well.

The magnitude of Snowy Owl migration appears to be linked somewhat to the population of lemmings on the tundra, their primary source of food. It was once believed that this connection was quite strong, and that every four years lemming numbers crashed, and a large owl flight would follow. Recent studies have painted a more complex picture, where snowy owls show large variation in the migration strategies employed by various populations across their range. Some birds migrate long distances each year regardless of lemming numbers, while others appear nomadic in their strategy, migrating according to the lemming cycle, and breeding wherever they find large densities of their prey (as crossbills do, according to cone crops). Either way, we can expect a few snowy owls almost every year here in New Jersey, and with a little patience and a keen eye, you might just spot one on your own.

High quality snowy habitat can be found at many locations throughout New York and New Jersey, such as Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge in Brooklyn and Queens, NY. Open marsh, high concentrations of ducks (a primary food source for snowies wintering along the coasts) and proximity to the JFK airport fields (jackrabbits galore) make this area prime real estate for snowy owls. The coastal dunes of the nearby beaches have also held snowies in multiple winters. In New Jersey snowies have been reported in multiple years from Liberty State Park (one already this winter), Sandy Hook, Shark River Estuary, Island Beach State Park, Barnegate Inlet, the aforementioned areas within the Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, and Stone Harbor point.